ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Copper and iron ore prices are divergingPrices of copper and iron ore diverging quickly with copper prices surging above $9,000/t, while iron ore is trading closer to the $100/t level.China’s...

USD: Fed's speed bump just got bigger Friday's strong US jobs report has added to the bumpy path of US disinflation and Federal Reserve rate cuts. At the start of this year, the Fed was comfortably...

US: Core CPI print to be 0.3% MoM The highlight over the week ahead in the US will be March consumer price inflation data. This has been running consistently hot in recent months, with housing...

Energy – JMMC recommends no change to OPEC+ cuts Oil prices continue to edge higher, although Brent is facing some resistance at the US$90/bbl level, with it unable to break above it so far....

The first rate cut isn't far offFinancial markets are warming to the idea of a June rate cut from the Bank of England, and it’s easy to see why. It’s virtually 'nailed on' that headline...

USD: JOLTS data in focus The DXY is now trading above 105 and is at its strongest level since the middle of last November. This strength is an extension of the move seen late last week when the...

Energy – Tensions grow amid tightening oil market Oil prices continued to edge higher yesterday with Brent hitting an intra-day high of almost US$88/bbl – levels last seen back in early...

US: Payrolls expected to rise by just under 200K The jobs report will be the main focus in the US next week. Payrolls are expected to rise by just under 200k, but once again are likely to be...

Energy – EIA reports inventory gain for the week The EIA’s weekly inventory report released yesterday was bearish, with US oil and gasoline inventories rising unexpectedly over the week....

USD: The dollar is no rush to sell off The dollar received some bullish news overnight in a speech from the Federal Reserve's Christopher Waller. He has been making influential speeches since late...

Headline inflation should fall back on Wednesday Food inflation should fall back rapidly Headline inflation should fall below 2% in April or May Services inflation should fall further in the second...

US: We see a 0.3% MoM increase in February CPI Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress was perhaps not quite as hawkish as feared in the wake of strong jobs, growth and...

Generative AI is already showing up in topline growth Some of the largest US technology companies expect to profit significantly from generative AI. To deploy generative AI on a worldwide scale, we...

By Benjamin SchroederRates are still looking to go higher near term. While supply has helped over the past few days, rates remain sensitive to the data. So far, pushing back the expectations for the...

The RBNZ changed its tone only moderately, keeping the threat of another hike on. However, NZD fell and AUD also declined after lower-than-expected CPI. We think Australia and New Zealand have...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...