ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The US seems to be enjoying a virtuous cycle of better-than-expected growth, higher tax receipts, and lower-than-expected borrowing requirements. In contrast, today should see a mild contraction in...

The week ahead is a busy one for financial markets, including key central bank meetings in the UK and US, key data releases (eurozone inflation, US NFP) the US Treasury quarterly refunding...

The BoE seems more reticent than other central banks to endorse rate cuts Expect the Bank to drop its tightening bias Markets seem more sensitive to dovish nuances of late Four scenarios for the Bank...

US: Federal Reserve expected to keep the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.50% UK: Bank of England to drop tightening bias but remain cautious on rate cuts Hungary: NBH cuts rates by 100bp...

FX markets continue to trade in a mixed fashion. The dollar is not quite sure whether it wants to rally on resilient US growth prospects or sell off in a world of lower market interest rates. Its path...

By Benjamin SchroederUS 5-year auction was rough, but Thursday's core PCE should be tame – what then? Likely yields lower, but only temporarily. The ECB takes centre stage with Lagarde...

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...

The dollar strengthened across the board yesterday with no clear catalyst. We suspect that in an environment that keeps pricing large Fed cuts, USD rallies aren’t very sustainable. We’ll...

The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations...

FX markets start the week in a quiet fashion. The highlight this week will be central bank meetings in many parts of the world, including Japan and the eurozone. No major changes are expected in...

USD: 13 February is shaping up to be a big day for markets Yesterday's release of above-expected UK inflation has demonstrated how financial markets can react to a sticky inflation scenario....

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

Tensions in the Middle East continue to linger, however, comments from a Fed official and a surge in the USD yesterday held large parts of the commodity complex backEnergy – Red Sea Tensions...

A combination of weak China data and a pushback by both ECB and Fed officials against early easing is weighing on risk sentiment and supporting the dollar. It is hard to see that sentiment changing...

2% inflation is coming very soon Why is UK inflation set to fall? Does the UK have a more significant inflation problem than the eurozone? How quickly can the Bank of England cut rates? 2% inflation...

By Benjamin SchroederEUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing. The message remains consistent – much of the...