ING Economic and Financial Analysis

It’s been busy in FX markets with surprisingly strong 3Q growth in Europe and an aggressive tax-and-spend budget from the UK Labour government. Eurozone rates and the EUR/USD could stay more...

Economic growth accelerated in the eurozone from 0.2% to 0.4%, in part driven by one-offs. Underlying growth remains sluggish, but there are no signs of the deterioration that the European Central...

Gold climbed to another record high this morning, following an all-time peak just yesterday. Markets are very much focused on next week’s US election Metals – Gold Hits Another Record High Gold...

Growth figures for 3Q are published in the US and eurozone today. German CPI is also expected to have re-accelerated, but the impact on the euro may be limited. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves announces...

The proximity to the US election can favour more deleveraging in FX, raising risks that less liquid currencies will face the pressure reserved for Trump-risk proxies. The US macro calendar picks up...

The oil market sold off aggressively yesterday after Israel’s measured response over the weekend. While it is still not clear if and how Iran will retaliate, the market is clearly of the view that...

Everyone expects more Fed rate cuts in the coming months, but the outcome of the US presidential election could influence their speed and depth. Of course, this is not the only conundrum policymakers...

It looks like Donald Trump is edging ahead in opinion polls – although the outcome of next week’s election remains a toss-up given the polling margin of error. Financial markets, however, seem to be...

THINK Ahead in Developed Markets United States Given the backdrop of 3% growth, low unemployment, equity markets at all-time highs, and inflation still above 2%, you could be forgiven for...

Even hawkish ECB members seem in favour of significant easing The wedge between US and EUR rates continues to widen. While in absolute rate levels there are signs that investors are seeing the...

GBP: Reeves Triggers First Gilt Shake-Up Unlike her ECB colleagues, Bank of England hawk Catherine Mann stuck to her usual tone yesterday, staying relatively pessimistic on disinflation and pointing...

After a 50bp rate cut last month, market speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next move is ramping up – and as the looming presidential election adds yet another layer of uncertainty to the...

Energy – Large US crude build Having sold off more than 1.4% yesterday, ICE Brent bounced back this morning and edged towards $76/bbl. The market continues to be caught between supply risks related...

This is the first BRICS summit since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE joined the bloc earlier this year. Among many things on the agenda is the issue of reducing reliance on the US dollar in...

The new Chancellor has inherited some challenges To say that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is unhappy with her public finance inheritance would be an understatement. She has characterised the economic...

GBP: Four speeches from BoE's Bailey this week We've had a bullish view on EUR/GBP this year, largely because we had felt that the market was mispricing the Bank of England cycle. We still believe...