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ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: Pressure at the Extremities By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - 12 hours ago

By Benjamin Schroeder The fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: Markets Are Cutting Rates By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Dec 01, 2023

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic Garvey Financial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: All About Inflation By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Nov 30, 2023

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic Garvey The rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: Effective Pushback Looks Different By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Nov 29, 2023

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin Schroeder Rates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: Looking Down, Just About By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Nov 28, 2023

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin Schroeder Nothing like a few auctions to help test the temperature. Yields sailed lower yesterday through the 2-year and 5-year UST auctions, which did not help their...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: Back to Competing Narratives By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Nov 17, 2023

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic Garvey While the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: CPI Improvements By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Nov 14, 2023

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic Garvey The tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: The 4.5% Line in the Sand Is Breached By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Nov 09, 2023

By Padhraic Garvey The US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Rates Spark: Supply Test Ahead By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Nov 08, 2023

By Padhraic Garvey As we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

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