Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Benjamin Schroeder The fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic Garvey Financial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...

Investors are increasing their collective bets that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates – a bet that went into overdrive this week and ignited the strongest rally in bonds in 40...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic Garvey The rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin Schroeder Rates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin Schroeder Nothing like a few auctions to help test the temperature. Yields sailed lower yesterday through the 2-year and 5-year UST auctions, which did not help their...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic Garvey While the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow. Yesterday’s sharp drop in the...

Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13. The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic Garvey The tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide...

By Padhraic Garvey The US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

By Padhraic Garvey As we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...