Bonds Analysis & Comment

As Brexit dominates headlines, it is not dominating investors. UK 2-Year and 10-Year gilt yields rose slightly to +0.825% and +1.287% (+2.46% and +2.30% percentage change) while the British pound...

Twelve months ago the main concern for markets was about what a US Federal Reserve with Jay Powell as its newly appointed chair might do with respect to US rates throughout 2018. Expectations of a US...

The Treasury yield curve is inverting as sentiment frays, partly because hopes on the U.S.-Sino trade agreement are evaporating. Treasury yield curve inversion that’s throwing eye-catching...

Summary Coordinated signals, subtle and vague from the leaders of Italy’s coalition government, are underpinning European stock markets again. Italian coalition blinks The mood—which is...

Summary It’s now ‘officially’ a dollar comeback week. It looks like stock markets are beginning to reflect this. FTSE MIB clings to thin weekly rise Judging by the pattern for most...

There is something inherently wrong with this market. In a healthy market, stocks and bonds maintain a negative correlation. When stocks rise bonds tend to fall, and vice versa. The logic is simple....

Analysts are attributing the increase to a strong US economy, hawkish Fed comments, technical factors or even possible demand for return premia. Yet, significant corporate issuance, higher dollar...

The biggest story in the markets right now is that benchmark government bonds are getting absolutely hammered, lifting yields across the developed economies. In essence, it is the unwinding of the...

European markets enjoyed a bit of a rebound yesterday after Italian politicians modified some of their language, offering to lower the deficit from 2020 onwards. The more conciliatory tone took some...

The big news on Tuesday is that Italian bond yields are lurching higher once more and have tested the air above 3.4% earlier today. This is spooking the markets, with European stocks a sea of red and...

Italy’s new government faces its first real test today: can the fragile coalition of radicals and centrists present a coherent budget that is palatable to the EU and won’t break the bank?...

This week has been a mixed one for the dollar, and by extension gold. Sentiment towards the greenback turned slightly negative in mid-week following the release of some weaker-than-expected US...

The US treasury curve has garnered significant attention, especially on the ‘curve inversion’ where the short-end of the curve yields is higher than the long(er) end. What has the market...

We are now in a firmly hiking environment, unless something derails the US economy in the coming months. The US treasury curve has been flattening, with 2y:10y reaching new lows. That being said, with...