ING Economic and Financial Analysis

USD: Looking expensive into the payrolls One can probably argue that the relatively cautious tone by the Federal Reserve this week will prevent markets from pricing in more than the current 75bp of...

USD: Short rates are on the move As we noted in our Federal Reserve review, the dollar initially rallied on the release of the new FOMC statement but then sold off when Chair Jerome Powell seemingly...

Post FOMC: The 2yr and 10yr are still heading to 4% in anticipation of a first cut by September The edge higher in yields post the FOMC statement is understandable. Into the meeting, the 10-year...

As we had expected, the BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% and announced the JGB purchases would be halved by 1Q26. The growth outlook was trimmed modestly for FY24 while the inflation outlook...

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

Energy – Oil risk premium rises Oil prices rebounded sharply in the early trading session today with the ICE Brent front-month contract trading above US$80/bbl as tensions in the Middle East...

With favorable economic data providing officials with greater confidence that US inflation is moving steadily along the right path, we think that Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should offer a clearer hint...

The big question for FX markets is whether July’s sharp correction is over. We think events tomorrow (Bank of Japan and Fed meetings) will have a big say. Before then, US JOLTS and consumer...

Brent broke below $80/bbl for the first time since early June as demand concerns linger Energy – Brent Tumbles Below $80/bbl Oil prices have come under further pressure as bearish sentiment has hit...

The decision, the rate cut and the forward guidance Financial markets reckon Thursday’s Bank of England meeting is a 50:50 call between the first 25bp rate cut and another ‘on hold’ decision....

Markets are on the fence about an August rate cut We’re a week out from the next Bank of England meeting and investors reckon a rate cut is a 50:50 call. The logic is simple enough. Two out of the...

Energy – supportive EIA inventory report Oil prices rebounded yesterday due to supportive inventory numbers from the US. The EIA reported that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.74m...

Oil prices have come under pressure due to lingering demand concerns, while the copper market has weakened further on the back of rising inventories Energy – Russian Crude Transit Issues Oil prices...

Oil prices continue to trade in a range. Chinese demand concerns continue to cap prices, while Canadian supply risks have reinforced the floor for the market Energy – Canada Wildfire Risk Grows The...

Market pricing for 2024 ECB cuts looks stretched Euro rates are now pricing in 48bp of cuts for 2024, which is just 2bp shy of two full 25bp cuts. In our baseline case, we also see scope for two...

Energy – China demand worries build The price action in oil yesterday was choppy. US dollar movements, Chinese demand concerns and expectations of a tighter global oil balance through the third...