ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Energy – Bullish API report supports oil Oil prices edge higher in early morning trading today after API numbers overnight showed that the US crude oil inventories fell sharply. ICE (NYSE:ICE)...

Energy – OPEC oil production steady in June The oil market jumped to its highest level in over two months on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East along with an intensifying hurricane in...

USD: Everyone expects a soft inflation number today There is a very strong consensus around a 0.1% month-on-month core PCE deflator for May today. Remember this is the Federal Reserve's preferred...

USD: Action is elsewhere until Friday The dollar continues to lack a significant trend and remains to the topside of a two-month trading range. US interest rate volatility remains subdued and that...

USD: Stronger after EU central bank events Central bank events in Europe gave the dollar some support yesterday. The surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank and a dovish hold by the Bank of...

We could see pressure building for additional monetary tightening in some APAC economies in the coming week. Meanwhile, North Asia (ex-China) delivers the monthly activity data dump which should show...

Data suggests sudden tightening of GBP liquidity conditions The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) benchmark rate has been creeping up since the beginning of the year, and the recent value of...

Oil is down, and so is copper after hitting record highs in May. Natural gas prices, however, continue to be supported by supply concerns. Oil market in deficit for the remainder of 2024 Oil prices...

A surprise 0.2% MoM core CPI inflation print after a similar reading for April core PCE deflator offers good news for the Fed in its fight to ease price pressures. This needs to become the trend...

Energy – Oil sell-off overdone Sentiment in the oil market continues to weaken. ICE Brent came under further pressure yesterday, settling more than 1% lower and taking prices below $78/bbl. A...

What did OPEC+ agree? OPEC+ members met over the weekend to discuss production policy for the remainder of this year and 2025. It was a hybrid meeting with the wider group attending by video...

Markets have barely reacted to the election announcement UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has caught the country by surprise and called a snap election for 4 July, setting the scene for a short and...

USD: Minutes boost may not last The 1 May FOMC minutes, released yesterday, surprised on the hawkish side and bolstered the dollar. While the general view was that policy was “well...

Energy - supply risks push European gas higher European natural gas prices have hit their highest level since January. TTF prices settled 4.2% higher yesterday at almost EUR34.39/MWh. This is after...

USD: Waller not as hawkish as it seemed The dollar awaits any domestic input to make the first move, and domestic stories are taking centre stage. We are even more convinced the Bank of Canada will...

Headline inflation is virtually back to targetIt’s no exaggeration to say that this week’s UK inflation data will make or break a June rate cut from the Bank of England. Markets are...