Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...

Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...

If you have been reading my public articles on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into...

Two hundred and sixty Fed meetings will occur between the issuing and maturing of a United States 30-Year Treasury bond. There will be 260 times when the Fed raises, lowers, or does nothing with Fed...

Bank contagion has officially spread to international markets, raising fears that last week’s dramatic failures of U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank may be just the start...

With bond yields (and interest rates) rising sharply, it’s understandable that most of the world is hoping for lower rates.Lower interest rates allow for more flexible lending to both businesses...

There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing.As inflation skyrocketed and the Fed turned hawkish, bonds were kryptonite for investors for most of 2022: it was time to be...

Treasury yields up + market expectations for the path of Fed interest rate hike up = bad news for stocks. Stocks in Europe and Asia slipped Wednesday after US markets registered their worst day...

US consumer inflation continues to ease, but less so than expected in January. Yesterday’s update suggests that the Federal Reserve will see the latest numbers as a new sign that pricing...

After taking a beating last year, US fixed income securities have clawed back some of the losses so far in 2023, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday's close (Feb. 9). But with the Federal Reserve...

Through the recent gyrations, markets seem to lack the conviction needed to push new lows in rates. The resulting range-trading environment brings lower rates of volatility and better risk appetite....

When I started working in the financial markets, bond traders were the cool kids. The equity guys drove Maseratis and acted like buffoons, but the bond guys drove sensible style like Mercedes and...