Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to trend higher in August, rising further above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three...

Current yields continue to show signs of peaking, based on a broad review of the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. In each of our periodic updates of yields so far this year, the numbers...

Over the last few weeks, bond markets have been on the move: 30-Year Treasury yields have rapidly surged from below 4% to almost 4.50% catching many by surprise.Yet understanding why and what drives...

The previous article discussed the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could temporarily upset the Treasury market,...

“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yields creep higher.Despite the highest yields in 15 years, some bearish bond traders think...

The last time you could lock in a real (inflation-adjusted) yield with inflation-adjusted Treasuries (TIPS), the world was still cleaning up the mess from the financial crisis. A lot has changed since...

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing...

Global bonds rocked by Bank of Japan changes, Fitch downgrade, and Fed's outlook. Long-term bond market sees rare turbulence. Investors split: Buffett and Musk optimistic, Ackman bearish. A triple...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the...