The past few years have seen interest rates soar. But perhaps it’s a case of too far, too fast.
Today we look at interest rates in the form of treasury bond yields. And more specifically, the United States 30-Year.
As you can see, the 30-year bond yield has been in a downtrend since peaking in the early 1980’s. But the recent rally may have ended that.
Needless to say, yields have either burned too hot or too cold a few times over this stretch of time. So how do we measure this?
Well, when yields have been a great distance above or below the 200-week moving average, long-term inflection points come into play.
First, it was the early 80’s when yields got 60% above its 200-day MA. Then, it was the COVID meltdown at (1) when yields fell sharply to 60% below the MA. And now yields have popped 60% above the MA at (2).
And, once again, yields are beginning to fall. Is it time for yields (interest rates) to come back down to earth? Stay tuned.