ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Even hawkish ECB members seem in favour of significant easing The wedge between US and EUR rates continues to widen. While in absolute rate levels there are signs that investors are seeing the...

GBP: Reeves Triggers First Gilt Shake-Up Unlike her ECB colleagues, Bank of England hawk Catherine Mann stuck to her usual tone yesterday, staying relatively pessimistic on disinflation and pointing...

After a 50bp rate cut last month, market speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next move is ramping up – and as the looming presidential election adds yet another layer of uncertainty to the...

Energy – Large US crude build Having sold off more than 1.4% yesterday, ICE Brent bounced back this morning and edged towards $76/bbl. The market continues to be caught between supply risks related...

This is the first BRICS summit since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE joined the bloc earlier this year. Among many things on the agenda is the issue of reducing reliance on the US dollar in...

The new Chancellor has inherited some challenges To say that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is unhappy with her public finance inheritance would be an understatement. She has characterised the economic...

GBP: Four speeches from BoE's Bailey this week We've had a bullish view on EUR/GBP this year, largely because we had felt that the market was mispricing the Bank of England cycle. We still believe...

Metals – Gold breaks above $2,700 for first time Gold broke above $2,700/oz for the first time amid concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the US election. Traders are...

The luxury of labour hoarding is coming to an end in the eurozone as corporate profits dwindle. And that’s going to mean wage growth will ease, unemployment will tick up and we’ll see more...

Energy – API reports oil inventory draws NYMEX WTI hovered near $70/bbl while ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent was trading just below $75/bbl this morning as market participants await fresh updates from the...

USD: Solid momentum The sharp drop in oil prices has been the biggest market story this week. Yesterday, the Israeli prime minister said the country is considering US concerns when planning a...

UK services inflation has fallen below 5% for the first time since May 2022 and that’s potentially big news for the Bank of England. Remember this is, by some distance, the most important input into...

Energy - Brent falls below US$75/bbl ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent extended its decline for a third straight session with prices falling sharply by almost 4% in the early trading session today as the risk...

USD: Range-bound Casting around the globe to identify key FX drivers, we note the following: Saturday's China fiscal stimulus measures lack detail, oil is steady as markets await Israel's...

The only game in town It seems to me that the global economy is mainly driven by politics these days. You've got escalating conflict in the Middle East and stalemate in Ukraine. And all that's...

USD: Awaiting the Fed minutes The dollar is staying relatively bid as the market digests the factors that have driven it 2% higher this month. These have largely been the intensifying conflict in...