ING Economic and Financial Analysis

In what is yet another disappointing set of US activity data, retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month in December, worse than the -0.9% figure the market was expecting. Meanwhile, November's contraction...

To quote a former UK Prime Minister, when asked about the most significant challenges faced by his administration, the answer came: “Events, dear boy, events”. The same can be said for...

The bulk of the commodities complex managed to edge higher yesterday despite some hawkish comments from Fed officials. Markets await US CPI data which will be released on Thursday Energy- Record U.S....

A weaker US dollar index provided some support to the commodity complex, while expectations for an improvement in the Chinese demand outlook provided a further boost Energy- USD Supports the...

Energy - Prompt Demand Concerns The weak start to the New Year has continued for oil. ICE Brent fell by a further 5.19% yesterday, which left the market trading convincingly below US$80/bbl. Time...

Fed Insists on Higher for Longer in Their Latest MinutesMarket reaction to the FOMC minutes was muted. Breakevens, real rates and nominal rates did not do much at all. Although at the margin there has...

USD: FOMC Minutes Barely Move the Needle Last night's release of FOMC minutes could have been perceived as slightly hawkish, yet FX and interest rate markets barely budged. At the heart of the 2023...

Energy - Milder Weather Continues to Weigh on Gas Energy markets came under significant pressure yesterday, along with the rest of the commodities complex. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed heavily on...

The dollar has started 2023 with some stability after suffering heaving losses for large parts of the last quarter. Asset managers keen to earn their fees will be looking to put money to work and will...

50bp With a Hawkish Twist The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the Fed Funds target rate range by 50bp to 4.25-4.5%, in line with market expectations. The text repeats that officials...

ICE Brent prices settled higher for a third consecutive day yesterday following an upward revision in the oil demand forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, the weekly petroleum...

Markets need to re-think the sustainability of the bond rally seen in the past month. Nominal and real rates are seen up. But not by very much. With no sense as of yet that the Fed is done, we...

The oil market received a boost yesterday from multiple factors. ICE Brent managed to settle more than 3.2% higher on the day. Most risk assets rallied on the back of the US Fed chairman signaling...

USD: Overreaction? The US dollar came off sharply late yesterday on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell which signaled that December would probably be the occasion to shift to a...

The Treasury market is nervous about a repeat of the August hawkish Fed pushback. Market participants await nervously Powell’s speech this evening after the October CPI report sent bond yields lower...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remind the market of the central bank's hawkish determination today, supporting the dollar. Meanwhile, softer inflation is trimming expectations in the eurozone. Polish...