ING Economic and Financial Analysis

US: Retail sales are likely to have grown solidly in December Even though the December jobs and inflation numbers came in somewhat hotter than expected, financial markets continue to gun for rate...

Geopolitical risks continue to grow in the Middle East with the US and UK carrying out airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen. Potentially more concerning for oil markets is Iran having seized an oil...

Rate expectations were not moved by slightly hotter-than-expected US CPI, and support for the dollar has mostly come through the risk-sentiment channel. Range-bound trading may persist despite...

Markets are expecting a lot of rate cuts this year The mortgage squeeze looks less worrisome with rate cuts on the horizon The Chancellor can expect £12bn extra "headroom" Real wage growth is...

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday with a bearish EIA inventory report, while European gas prices found some support given developments in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the share of Russian aluminium...

We expect a consensus 0.3% MoM core inflation reading in the US today. We see the rise in the USD/JPY as an indication that fast money is probably positioned for a stronger figure, meaning there are...

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

The FX market appears in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI. Today, there aren’t key data releases, but we’ll keep an eye on speeches by Fed member John Williams and the...

Large parts of the commodity complex came under pressure yesterday, with the sell-off led by energy. European gas prices came under pressure with ample storage, whilst for oil there are more signs of...

Major FX pairs look to have settled into early-year ranges and now await the next big input – Thursday's release of December CPI data for the US. The modest back-up in interest rates this year...

Protests at Libya’s largest oil field has seen force majeure declared on these supplies. This supply disruption and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide some...

The dollar is back around Friday’s open levels against most G10 currencies as markets face contradicting indications from the jobs market and ISM services index. Expect a quiet start to the week...

US: CPI report expected to show a soft print this month UK: Monthly GDP set for modest rebound after October’s weakness US: CPI report expected to show a soft print this month The data...

A bearish EIA report saw oil giving back some of its gains made earlier in the week. Meanwhile, nickel continues to come under pressure with fundamentals set to remain soft through 2024Energy - Large...

The soft landing playbook could see a temporary reversal today were the December US jobs report to come in on the strong side. The market seems to have gotten a little ahead of itself in pricing the...

Hawks and doves might both be satisfied with yesterday's Fed minutes. Stressing conditionality seems inconsistent with March cut expectations, but the openness to a QT exit and concerns about the...