ING Economic and Financial Analysis

USD: Softer amid intra-day volatility Amid much intra-day volatility, DXY is down around 0.5% on the week. That's not much, but DXY is now just a whisker away from the lowest levels in two years....

The BoE is much more cautious than the Fed What was striking about today’s Bank of England decision is how different the messaging was compared to the Federal Reserve yesterday. The Bank has kept...

Beneath the surface of the latest UK CPI report, there are signs that the inflation story is slowly but surely moving in the right direction. That might sound weird, given that services inflation...

Bank of England treading more cautiously than the Fed The Bank of England may have started cutting rates ahead of the Federal Reserve, but you wouldn’t know it listening to recent comments from the...

USD: All to play for in Philadelphia FX markets are marking out ranges as they wait for fresh inputs. Overnight we saw some better Chinese trade data, where exports surprised on the upside and...

Energy – Saudis cut OSP Despite OPEC+ delaying its supply increase by two months, oil prices still had a weak finish to trading last week. ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent settled 2.24% lower on Friday,...

USD: ING's customers turn a little more bearish on the dollar In a poll taken during our Economics Live webinar yesterday, 25% of respondents felt EUR/USD would end the year over 1.13, while 46%...

Energy – Libyan supply Oil prices sold off heavily yesterday and this pressure has continued in early morning trading today. ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent settled almost 4.9% lower on the day, leaving it...

Competition to build the dominant model intensifies further The competition to become the leading generative AI company is ramping up. There are currently five cutting-edge LLMs according to...

Energy – OPEC+ cuts Oil prices came under pressure on Friday. The ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent Nov-24 contract settled 2.4% lower on the day. The catalyst for the move appears to be reports that OPEC+...

USD: Consolidation or base-building? There is quite a popular view out there that with 100bp of Fed cuts priced by the end of this year and a terminal rate already priced at 3.00%, the dollar does...

USD: The activity data will now be key As James Knightley discusses here, Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium to pre-announce the start of the Fed's easing cycle in...

USD: Cautious Powell may give some help to the dollar The latest batch of US data has not firmly argued in favour of a 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and most FOMC members have also...

USD: Price action is dollar negative DXY is this morning breaking under 102.16 - the low seen during the flash crash of Monday 5 August. There is no flash crash underway today and instead, the...

USD: We don't expect any CPI upside surprise Global risk sentiment got a lift from a soft US PPI print yesterday, as the final demand index came in at 0.1% month-on-month (consensus 0.2%) and the...

Energy – Oil edges higher amid lingering geopolitical risks Both ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent and NYMEX WTI continued the positive run this morning after making gains last week with geopolitical tensions...