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We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market meltup, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks causing...
The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...
Last week, the Fed vice chair for supervision, Michael Barr, announced that the regulator had cut a proposed increase to capital requirements for the largest US banks by more than half. According to...
Today, modern prop trading is fundamentally changing the world of financial markets. What was once only available to high net worth investors, is now accessible to a wide range of clients thanks to...
US economic activity remains on track to post a softer but still-solid growth rate in next month’s official GDP report for the third quarter. The analysis is based on the median estimate from several...
We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market melt-up, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks...
Wow, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps yesterday and the economy is already responding. Jobless claims fell and two regional business surveys strengthened in September, while the...
Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023. A clear warning sign has yet to emerge, based on a set of ETF pairs that...
The Bank of England (BoE) kept rates unchanged on Thursday as widely expected. The vote split came in at 8-1, with just one dovish dissenter. Markets had been expecting a 7-2 split. Comments attached...
In 1997, IBM (NYSE:IBM)'s Deep Blue defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov, marking a pivotal moment in artificial intelligence (AI) history. This victory was a sign of things to come, with AI...
The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continues to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks that are...
‘The stock market has risen too sharply, stocks are overvalued, there is a risk of overheating’. These are the main statements that we have read again and again in recent years, and increasingly in...
Beneath the surface of the latest UK CPI report, there are signs that the inflation story is slowly but surely moving in the right direction. That might sound weird, given that services inflation...
With investors eager for a rate cut, I believe the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution, opting for a 25bps reduction rather than a more aggressive 50bps cut. Cutting too much, too fast would...
Today’s retail sales report could be critical, especially if it comes in weak, as the market is currently uncertain about the number of rate cuts expected tomorrow. Currently, Fed Fund Futures show...
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut rates for the second time this year, following its initial cut in June. The Deposit Facility Rate, which determines the interest banks earn...