Bonds Analysis & Opinion

In this video, Alex Spiroglou shares his thoughts on the bond market. He focuses on different factors to explain why he believes the late October bottom in the bond market has potential.Reasons...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

By Benjamin SchroederEUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing. The message remains consistent – much of the...

While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate, based on the average of three models run by...

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds.And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look at...

The US bond market has had a rough ride for much of the past two years, but the powerful rally over the last two months suggests the worst is over.Cherry-picking analytics from the recent crop of 2024...

By Benjamin SchroederWhat a week it's been. Central bank anticipation first. Then, evidence of a holiday party at the Fed. Followed by failed attempts from Frankfurt and London to poop that party. But...

Today’s update of the “fair-value” model for the US 10-year Treasury yield reaffirms that the benchmark rate appears unusually high relative to the economic fundamentals.Although...

The average 2024 Wall Street S&P 500 forecast is for a gain of 6.50% next year. In the past, a 6.50% expectation, while slightly lower than historical averages, was a no-brainer when choosing...

By Benjamin SchroederMarket expectations of policy easing for the next year are about to get tested tonight with the Federal Reserve likely to signal that there is still a job to get done. Yesterday's...

By Benjamin SchroederPayrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor market recession. We...

By Benjamin SchroederThe 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation expectations. The front end...