Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Padhraic GarveyUS Treasury yields were tracking the probability for a March cut, but now tracking the regional bank performance. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, but markets keep their...

Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11.In my opinion, after the secondary extreme inversion of the 10-2 yield curve in July a new yield curve steepener was in the bag. That is...

By Benjamin SchroederUS 5-year auction was rough, but Thursday's core PCE should be tame – what then? Likely yields lower, but only temporarily. The ECB takes centre stage with Lagarde...

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...

In this video, Alex Spiroglou shares his thoughts on the bond market. He focuses on different factors to explain why he believes the late October bottom in the bond market has potential.Reasons...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate, based on the average of three models run by...

Just as interest rates are pulling back, one particular government rate appears to be nearing an important moment.The 10-Year Germany Bond yield. Above is a long-term “monthly” chart of...

Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds.And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look at...

The US bond market has had a rough ride for much of the past two years, but the powerful rally over the last two months suggests the worst is over.Cherry-picking analytics from the recent crop of 2024...

The past few years have seen interest rates soar. But perhaps it’s a case of too far, too fast.Today we look at interest rates in the form of treasury bond yields. And more specifically, the...

By Benjamin SchroederWhat a week it's been. Central bank anticipation first. Then, evidence of a holiday party at the Fed. Followed by failed attempts from Frankfurt and London to poop that party. But...

Today’s update of the “fair-value” model for the US 10-year Treasury yield reaffirms that the benchmark rate appears unusually high relative to the economic fundamentals.Although...