ING Economic and Financial Analysis

European gas prices have jumped to their highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, aluminium rose in yesterday’s trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian...

It's a busy day ahead in FX markets. The highlight should be another 25bp cut from the ECB, but we'll get plenty of fourth-quarter GDP data from the US and Europe. Elsewhere, we think this week's...

Robust activity, a solid jobs market and sticky inflation justify the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady. The hawkish tilt from officials may in part be a message to President Trump that...

The EU plans to ban Russian aluminium imports as part of a sanctions package ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Energy – Crude Oil Steady Crude oil prices steadied...

The currency market has followed the stabilization in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings. We don’t think the Fed's conditions for a dovish tilt have been met,...

The Nasdaq 100 witnessed its largest one-day fall since 2022 after the DeepSeek correction extended much further on Monday. Potentially, this technology could be a game-changer, and questions are...

Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...

Commodity markets were unable to escape the sell-off that was seen in equities, while the threat of tariffs will not be helping sentiment Energy – Unable to Escape Risk-off Move Oil prices came under...

The US dollar has so far retraced about a quarter of its 10% run-up from late September. That has largely been a function of investors reducing the tariff risk premium embedded into the currencies of...

Tariff developments over the weekend have led to a stronger dollar this morning and weighed on large parts of the commodities complex Energy – Tanker Rates Ease Oil prices saw their first weekly...

The Bank of Japan delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp hike, but surprised markets on the hawkish side by materially raising its inflation forecasts. We expect two more hikes this year which can pave...

Oil prices traded lower yesterday after President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum, while European gas prices remain well supported given storage concerns Energy Oil prices came under...

Markets have continued to unwind US Dollar longs as US Treasuries had another strong session, and a delay in tariff announcements is fuelling some tentative optimism. That said, we could start to see...

Oil and base metals have come under pressure with the growing threat of tariffs Energy – Freeport Outage Sees TTF Surge The oil market’s attention is slowly turning away from US sanctions against...

Will the Treasury be forced to cut spending in March, and are taxes going up again? Would that be enough to ease fears in bond markets? And how quickly will the Bank of England be able to cut...

The US dollar suffered a positioning squeeze yesterday as Trump fell short of announcing universal tariffs on day one. However, USD/CAD and USD/MXN are facing more downside risks as the new president...