ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The first rate cut isn't far offFinancial markets are warming to the idea of a June rate cut from the Bank of England, and it’s easy to see why. It’s virtually 'nailed on' that headline...

USD: JOLTS data in focus The DXY is now trading above 105 and is at its strongest level since the middle of last November. This strength is an extension of the move seen late last week when the...

Energy – Tensions grow amid tightening oil market Oil prices continued to edge higher yesterday with Brent hitting an intra-day high of almost US$88/bbl – levels last seen back in early...

US: Payrolls expected to rise by just under 200K The jobs report will be the main focus in the US next week. Payrolls are expected to rise by just under 200k, but once again are likely to be...

Energy – EIA reports inventory gain for the week The EIA’s weekly inventory report released yesterday was bearish, with US oil and gasoline inventories rising unexpectedly over the week....

USD: The dollar is no rush to sell off The dollar received some bullish news overnight in a speech from the Federal Reserve's Christopher Waller. He has been making influential speeches since late...

Headline inflation should fall back on Wednesday Food inflation should fall back rapidly Headline inflation should fall below 2% in April or May Services inflation should fall further in the second...

US: We see a 0.3% MoM increase in February CPI Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress was perhaps not quite as hawkish as feared in the wake of strong jobs, growth and...

Generative AI is already showing up in topline growth Some of the largest US technology companies expect to profit significantly from generative AI. To deploy generative AI on a worldwide scale, we...

By Benjamin SchroederRates are still looking to go higher near term. While supply has helped over the past few days, rates remain sensitive to the data. So far, pushing back the expectations for the...

The RBNZ changed its tone only moderately, keeping the threat of another hike on. However, NZD fell and AUD also declined after lower-than-expected CPI. We think Australia and New Zealand have...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...

Overcapacity and continued expansion in the smelting industry in China have led to a steep fall in copper treatment charges. Meanwhile, exchange inventories for copper continued to rise, putting...

January CPI data in Japan confirmed inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2.0% target. The yen “survived” the release, but remains around very weak levels and in FX intervention...

Key points The money available for tax cuts – so-called “headroom” – now equals £18bn, up from £13bn in November, according to our estimates. That's lower than...

Inventories of base metals and steel increased in China over the last week, reflecting slower demand and ample supply in the short termMetals – Global Steel Output FallsSteel inventories at...