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The Fed has been running QT for a while and yet there is still abundant liquidity in the financial system.Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.3 trillion from their peak (due to QT), yet only half of...
Happy New Year Traders and Investors. Sometimes it seems to me that the pace of life is accelerating from year to year, and this year is shaping up to be no different. I’ve put a lot of thought...
US markets will be closed today, making for another short week. This will be an option expiration week with the VIX on Wednesday and Monthly stock OPEX on Friday.This will open a window for increased...
Week Ahead 15-19th January:SAT: Taiwanese Elections. MON: Iowa Republican Caucuses, Eurogroup Meeting, Davos WEF Begins (15th-19th); Indian WPI (Dec), German Wholesale Price Index (Dec), Swedish CPIF...
US: Retail sales are likely to have grown solidly in December Even though the December jobs and inflation numbers came in somewhat hotter than expected, financial markets continue to gun for rate...
In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply.The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a...
After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread.A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or...
In December, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States rose by 3.4% year-over-year (YoY), marking the highest increase in three months, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Markets are expecting a lot of rate cuts this year The mortgage squeeze looks less worrisome with rate cuts on the horizon The Chancellor can expect £12bn extra "headroom" Real wage growth is...
The December CPI report is due on Thursday at 8:30AM ET. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 3.2% and core CPI is forecast to climb 3.8%. While the rate of inflation is declining, it’s not...
The S&P 500 finished the day higher by about 60 bps, while the S&P 500 Equal Weighted finished the day higher by just 17 bps. It again shows how the indexes are diverging and returning to...
Market narratives have been around for ages. However, the internet and, more recently, social media allow narratives to spread much quicker. Accordingly, they have become more frequent and potent...
Stocks gapped lower, while the equal-weight and small-cap indexes didn’t recover much. The S&P 500 finished the day lower by around 15 bps.The index was able to fill the morning’s...
Much of what is thought and believed about the stock market is based upon fallacy and a lack of understanding, which was easily seen in the comments section of one of my recent articles.It seems that...
During the last week of December, I polled my Twitter followers for their outlook on the markets and the economy for 2024. The results were quite interesting, but before we look forward, we must look...