• FTSE 100 makes cautious start
• Entain (LON:ENT), M&G, Coca Cola all in favour after results
• Housing activity continues to fall - RICS
House prices continue to rise although housing market activity is declining sharply, according to the latest survey from The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
The net balance of surveyors reporting that house prices have risen over the last three months fell to +63 in July, from +65 in June, but exceeded the consensus, +60.
However, new buyer enquiries balance edged up to -25 in July, from -27 in June, but remained well below its average level in the 2010s, +1.
But the impact of the fall in demand on house prices, however, is being cushioned by the scarcity of homes for sale.
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist, at Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “Housing market activity is declining rapidly, driven by the surge in mortgage rates and the collapse in consumers’ confidence.”
He pointed out that “The weakness of the new buyer enquiries balance is supported by other surveys, such as the BSA’s Property Tracker survey, which showed in quarter two that the net balance of households thinking now is a good time to buy a home was the lowest since Q3 2008.”
“The slump in demand is hardly surprising in light of the surge in mortgage rates.”
“The low level of redundancies suggests that forced sales will not rise imminently.”
“Accordingly, we continue to think that house prices will drop by only 2% in the second half of this year, and then will start to recover in 2023, as our forecasts for fewer further increases in Bank Rate than markets expect implies mortgage rates have some scope to fall from their current levels” Tombs said.
9.00am: Subdued start in London, ex-dividend stocks weigh
Trading in London got off to a cautious start with falls in healthcare stocks and mining group, Rio Tinto (LON:RIO), limiting the gains seen in other global markets following the better than expected US CPI numbers yesterday.
Rio Tinto was one a number of index heavyeights to go ex-dividend today, together with oil majors BP (LON:BP) and Shell (LON:RDSa) amongst others.
By 9.00am the FTSE 100 was trading down 0.58 points at 7,506.53 although the FTSE 250 index was 54.61 points to the good at 20,352.61.
Corporate news gave the lead index some support with well received numbers from Entain PLC (LSE:ENT), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and M&G PLC (LSE:MNG).
Entain topped the FTSE 100 risers gaining 3.86% to 1,359.75p after announcing the €600mln acquisition of Croatian bookmaker, SuperSport, alongside first half results.
Analysts at Peel Hunt said first half EBITDA of £471mln was ahead of its £454mln forecast while the group’s full year guidance was consistent with its expectations.
The broker welcomed the SuperSport deal and thinks once the US business, BetMGM, moves into profit Entain will deliver steady, cash generative growth.
Peel Hunt has 2000p price target for Entain.
Shares in investment manager M&G rose 2% to 221.65p after reporting that improved fund flows in the six months ended 30 June had underpinned a "resilient" operational and financial performance.
M&G PLC (LSE:MNG) said interim operating capital generation was up 40% year-on-year at £433.0mln, while its shareholder solvency II rating remained very strong at 214%.
Adjusted pre-tax operating profits fell from £327.0mln to £182.0mln, impacted by current market conditions.
8.30am: Staedy start to trading in London
FTSE 100 opened in cautious fashion on Thursday despite gains in Europe, the US and Asia following the better than expected US inflation numbers yesterday.
At 8.20am the lead index was down 5.68 points at 7,501.43.
Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment, interactive investor says, “After last night’s rally on Wall Street thanks to a better-than-expected US inflation report, European markets have followed suit trading upwards thanks to global risk-on sentiment.”
“Basic resources are underperforming while technology and financials are leading the charge”
“The FTSE 100 is lagging behind, trading just below the flatline while the DAX, CAC and FTSE MIB push higher.”
Coca-Cola HBC AG led the FTSE 100 risers (up 4.5% to 2,117p) as investors warmed to their first half numbers which saw organic revenue growth of 19.4% to €4,209.9mln.
The beverage group was also upbeat about the future forecasting group comparable EBIT in the range of €740mln to €820mln for 2022 with double digit revenue growth seen in its markets excluding Russia and Ukraine.
7.30am: London seen higher at the open
Blue chip stocks are expected to make a positive start to the day on Thursday with global stock markets taking heart from the better than expected US inflation report yesterday.
Spread betting companies are calling the FTSE 100 up around 17 points in early trading.
Michael Hewson chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK noted: “European markets finished at their highest level in two months yesterday after US CPI surprised to the downside, and oil flows in the southern part of the Druzhba pipeline restarted after being closed down at the end of last week.”
“The bigger than expected fall in the headline number, along with the weaker than expected core reading, has prompted the hope that the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive on rate hikes when it meets to raise rates in September.”
“Consequently, rate rise expectations have fallen from 75bps to 50bps, prompting a decline in US 2-year yields, though some of the fall in yields was pared back after Chicago Fed President Charles Evans played down the importance of a single CPI reading.”
“In essence the Federal Reserve is likely to want to see further evidence of an inflation slowdown, and even then, they will also want to see it fall back to half the level it is now.”
“Ultimately any slowdown in inflationary pressures needs to be viewed through a prism of whether we see rate hikes of 50bps or slower, post the September meeting.”
“To that end with recent weakness in prices paid data pointing to a similar slowdown in inflation, todays PPI numbers, which tend to be more forward looking are likely to be as important, if not more so when it comes to what’s coming from the next CPI number, which comes during the Fed blackout period, just before the September meeting.”
“Expectations are for headline PPI to fall back to 10.3%, from 11.3%”
Copper miner, Antofagasta PLC (LSE:LON:ANTO), reported sharp falls in revenue for the first half of 2022 with a 29.6% drop to $2,528mln, while EBITDA slumped 47.5% to $1,238mln reflecting the lower revenues and a 6.9% increase in operating costs mainly due to higher input prices.
Group copper production in the first six months of the year was 268,600 tonnes , 25.7% lower year on year, due to the expected temporary reduction in throughput at Los Pelambres as a result of the drought and the concentrate pipeline incident and expected lower grades at Centinela Concentrates.
Full year copper production for the group is expected to be 640-660,000 tonnes.
Chief executive officer, Iván Arriagada, said: ""We expect the remainder of the year to look very different from the first half - as production improves quarter-on-quarter, we ship and sell the concentrate that was impacted by the concentrate pipeline incident, and the desalination plant at Los Pelambres starts, significantly alleviating the issue of water availability.”
Gaming and betting company, Entain PLC (LSE:ENT), reported a 17% increase in group EBITDA to £471mln in the six months to June 30th, and forecast full year 2022 EBITDA in the range of £925mln to £975mln, in line with market expectations.
Looking ahead Jette Nygaard-Andersen, CEO of Entain, commented: “While we remain vigilant to the consumer backdrop, our geographic and product diversity provides resilience which, together with our proven ability to drive superior returns, gives us confidence that we will continue to deliver benefits for our stakeholders."
7.00am: London seen opening higher
Shares in London are expected to open slightly higher on Thursday following gains in the US and Asia overnight with global markets taking heart from the better than expected US consumer price inflation report.
Spread betting companies are calling the lead index up by around 10 points in early trading.
The Dow finished Wednesday up 535 points, 1.6%, at 33,310, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 361 points, 2.9%, to 12,855 and the S&P 500 improved 88 points, 2.1%, to 4,210.
The S&P 500 hit its highest level since May thanks to a broad rally brought on in part by positive reactions to July's Consumer Price Index data released yesterday.
Thursday brings another jam-packed morning of company news in London, including Ladbrokes (LON:LCL) owner Entain, fund manager M&G and copper miner Antofagasta, as well as a smattering of property news from Derwen, Savills (LON:SVS) and RICS housing market data.