Jefferies, in a note on Friday, pointed out ten potential policies that former President Donald Trump could implement if he wins the next election and the subsequent stock implications.
The report is based on Trump's Agenda 47 proposals, an analysis of the 220 executive orders from his first term, and insights from Jefferies' policy experts.
1. Immigration and Deportation
Analysts predict that Trump may terminate benefits for undocumented immigrants and intensify deportation and detention efforts, involving cutting public housing, food stamps, health insurance, and citizenships for children of undocumented immigrants.
The move might benefit companies like Agco Corp (NYSE:AGCO) and Deere & Co (NYSE:DE), while FMC Corp (NYSE:FMC), Corteva Inc (NYSE:CTVA), Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER), DoorDash Inc (NASDAQ:DASH), and Yum! Brands, Inc (NYSE:YUM) could face negative impacts.
2. Trade and Tariffs
In trade and international relations, Trump is expected to align US tariff rates with those of trading partners, said Jefferies, adding that he might impose a 10% tariff across the board and up to 60% on China.
Stocks that could see positive effects include Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF), X (formerly Twitter), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Ovintiv Inc (NYSE:OVV), CSX Corp (NASDAQ:CSX), Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE:NSC), eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY), Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY), Mohawk Industries Inc (NYSE:MHK), Microchip Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MCHP), and ON Semiconductor Corp (NASDAQ:ON). On the other hand, Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF), Steve Madden Ltd (SHOO), CAVA Group Inc (CAVA), The Chefs' Warehouse Inc (NASDAQ:CHEF), Celanese Corp (NYSE:CE), Dow Inc (NYSE:DOW), Canadian National Railway Co (CNI), Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (NYSE:CP), Union Pacific Corp (NYSE:UNP), Eaton Corp (NYSE:ETN), Wesco International Inc (NYSE:WCC), Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (NYSE:FBIN), Masco Corp (NYSE:MAS), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ:LULU), Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), Wayfair Inc (NYSE:W), and Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) might be negatively impacted.
3. Deregulation
Analysts also noted Trump's intent to restore an executive order mandating the removal of two existing regulations for every new one introduced, further weakening federal agency authority.
This could benefit include Affirm Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:AFRM), Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN), Brighthouse Financial Inc (NASDAQ:BHF), Corebridge Financial Inc (CRBG), Baker Hughes Co (NASDAQ:BKR), Cheniere Energy Inc (NYSE:LNG), British American Tobacco plc (NYSE:BTI), Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS), Enova International Inc (NYSE:ENVA), OneMain Holdings Inc (NYSE:OMF), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), Live Nation Entertainment Inc (NYSE:LYV), Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM), UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH), Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF), Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF), Bread Financial Holdings Inc (BFH), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:VRTX), and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC).
On the other hand, American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH), Invitation Homes Inc (NYSE:INVH), Agilent Technologies Inc (NYSE:A), Waters Corp (NYSE:WAT), Cummins Inc (NYSE:CMI), PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR), Centene Corp (NYSE:CNC), and Molina Healthcare Inc (NYSE:MOH) might face challenges.
4. Energy Policy
Moreover, Trump is likely to repeal the EPA's electric vehicle standards, which mandate that 56% of new vehicle sales be electric by 2032. The potential repeal of EV credits from the Inflation Reduction Act is also anticipated.
This policy could positively impact Anglo American plc (AAL), Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F), General Motors Co (NYSE:GM), Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA), Valvoline Inc (NYSE:VVV), Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO), and Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC).
On the other hand, it could negatively impact Analog Devices Inc (NASDAQ:ADI), Allegro MicroSystems Inc (ALGM), Albemarle Corp (NYSE:ALB), Allstate Corp (NYSE:ALL), Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR), Ally Financial Inc (NYSE:ALLY), Bruker Corp (NASDAQ:BRKR), Waters Corp (WAT), Capstone Copper Corp (CS), Ero Copper Corp (ERO), Littelfuse Inc (NASDAQ:LFUS), TE Connectivity Ltd (NYSE:TEL), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).
5. Drug Pricing
Lowering drug prices and expanding domestic manufacturing of essential drugs is another policy Trump may pursue, potentially benefiting stocks like Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:AMPH), Merck & Co Inc (MRK), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NYSE:TEVA), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX). It, however, could negatively affect BioCryst (NASDAQ:BCRX) Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX).
6. Foreign Policy on Russia
Analysts note that Trump plans to end Russia's war on Ukraine, although specifics are not detailed in Agenda 47.
Stocks such as Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT), Oshkosh Corp (NYSE:OSK), Ashland (NYSE:ASH) Global Holdings Inc (ASH), Avient Corp (AVNT), Philip Morris International Inc (NYSE:PM), EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM), and Parsons Corp (NYSE:PSN) could see positive impacts.
The ones at the receiving end could include LyondellBasell Industries NV (NYSE:LYB), AeroVironment Inc (NASDAQ:AVAV), Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CRWD), and Equinor ASA (EQNR).
7. Government Budget
In government restructuring, Trump is expected to direct federal agencies to identify budget cuts, a first step toward reviving the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, which allows Congress to rescind excess funding.
Stocks that might be negatively impacted include HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA), Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC), Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD), and Newmont Corp (NEM).
8. Education Authority
Trump also aims to transfer education authority from the Department of Education to state governments, believing states are best positioned to tailor education policies to community needs.
Beneficiaries could include Instructure Holdings Inc (INST), PowerSchool Holdings Inc (PWSC), Navient Corp (NASDAQ:NAVI), and SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SOFI), while Avantor Inc (NYSE:AVTR) might face challenges.
9. Federal Workforce
Restoring Schedule F appointments, which convert civil officers into politically appointed positions, and eliminating equity policies in federal agencies are also on Trump's agenda.
Leidos Holdings Inc (NYSE:LDOS) could benefit, while Danaher Corp (NYSE:DHR) and Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (NYSE:TMO) might be negatively impacted.
10. Free Speech
Finally, Trump plans to ban censorship of speech, continuing his administration’s efforts to promote freedom of speech and religion by restricting promotion, marketing, and financial support for online platforms that censor content.
This could negatively impact Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms Inc (META).