Investing.com - Here are the top five things you need to know in financial markets on Friday, August 4:
1. Eyes on jobs though impact seen limited
The U.S. Labor Department will release its July nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Friday.
The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 183,000 this month, following an increase of 222,000 in June, with the unemployment rate forecast to dip to 4.3% from 4.4%.
Most of the focus will likely be on average hourly earnings figures, which are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% a month earlier, with the annualized reading expected to dip to 2.4%, from the previous 2.5%.
With the U.S. economy considered to be at full employment, experts suggest that the days where the jobs report could have a major impact on markets are long gone, noting it unlikely to change the outlook for the future path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Conviction for another rate hike from the Fed before the end of the year has faded, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, with just 26% of market players expecting another move by
December due to worries over the subdued inflation outlook.
2. Mueller impanels grand jury in Russia probe
Market players will continue to watch political developments stateside after a report just minutes before Thursday’s stock market close indicated that Special Counsel Robert Mueller convened a Grand Jury to investigate alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential elections that may have involved members from Donald Trump’s campaign.
President Trump quickly responded to the news, stating in a rally that “They’re trying to cheat you out of the leadership that you want with a fake story.”
Investors remained concerned over the political upheaval in Washington in so far as it distracts the President from moving forward infrastructure and fiscal policies.
3. Dollar hovers near 15-month lows ahead of NFP report
The dollar hovered near 15-month lows against major rivals on Friday as investors looked ahead to July’s employment report.
The greenback has fallen around 10% since January as constant political battles in Washington have battered hopes that President Trump can achieve tax reforms and infrastructure spending.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.08% to 92.63 by 5:32AM ET (11:32GMT), just off Wednesday’s 15-month low of 92.39.
Similarly, gold also showed little movement as market players were cautious ahead of the data release.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery inched up just 0.05% to $1,268.43 by 5:33AM ET (11:33GMT), very close to Tuesday’s seven-week highs of $1,273.30.
4. Global stocks mixed on caution ahead of U.S. jobs data
The Dow tacked on a seventh straight record close on Thursday, making that the 32 close at all-time highs year-to-date.
Despite the blue-chip index’s recent climb, the broader global benchmark S&P 500 provided a good example of the tepid advance, having moved in the last 12 sessions from to 2,472 points to 2,473 with daily closes in a tight range from 2,470 to 2,477.
Caution reigned on Friday as market players kept tabs on political developments in the U.S. and waited for the jobs data out later in the session.
European stocks traded mostly higher nearing midday as investors weighed a raft of earnings reports. At 5:34AM ET (11:34GMT), the European benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 inched up 0.09%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.25%, while London's FTSE 100 traded up 0.11%.
Earlier, Asian stocks also closed with mixed signs after the drop in U.S. tech stocks weighed on the likes of Japanese and Chinese equities.
5. Oil slips on inventory surprise ahead of official data
Oil prices declined for a second consecutive day on Friday, on track for weekly losses of almost 3%, as investors remained concern over increasing U.S. production and OPEC output.
Crude oil exports by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose to a record high in July, driven largely by soaring exports from the group's African members, according to a report by Thomson Reuters Oil Research this week.
Market participants will keep an eye on increasing U.S. shale production when Baker Hughes releases its most recent weekly rig count data later on Friday.
U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.84% to $48.62 at 5:35AM ET (11:35GMT), while Brent oil traded down 0.79% to $51.60.