On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its Equalweight rating on ASML Holding NV (LON:0QB8) (AS:ASML:NA) (NASDAQ: ASML) with a steady price target of EUR800.00. The firm's analysis highlighted a challenging spending environment, as indicated by ASML's recent financial guidance. ASML's updated forecast revealed a reduction in the expected sales for the fiscal year 2025, with sales projected to be between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion, down from the previous range of EUR30 billion to EUR40 billion.
ASML's quarterly guidance confirmed the revenue recognition of the first two High NA tools, which are believed to be for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). This comes amidst a backdrop of competitive dynamics in the logic sector, which has led to a slower ramp-up in new nodes and subsequent delays in semiconductor fabrication plant (fab) operations. Despite continued spending related to HBM/DDR5, this has not been sufficient to counterbalance the weakness in logic demand, which is more EUV-intensive.
The company has also adjusted its gross margin (GM%) outlook, now expecting 51-53% compared to the previous 54-56%. This adjustment is partly due to the anticipated reliance on TSMC for volume low NA EUV shipments, as TSMC has proven to be effective at negotiating prices for tool orders. Furthermore, the order book for the quarter appeared weaker than anticipated, totaling approximately EUR2.65 billion, with only about EUR1.4 billion for EUV and roughly EUR1.2 billion for DUV. The slowdown in DUV orders raises concerns about a potential decrease in China's spending in the coming year.
ASML also noted that China's sales could drop to around 20% next year, a significant decrease from the approximately 49% in the first half of 2024. Additionally, Installed Base Management ( IBM (NYSE:IBM)) sales came in lower than Morgan Stanley's estimate of EUR1.82 billion, at EUR1.54 billion, indicating that the expected growth in this area has not yet materialized.
In other recent news, ASML Holding NV reported a significant drop in Q3 orders, notably in EUV systems, and a reduction in logic orders. Despite this, the company provided solid Q4 guidance, projecting sales in the range of €8.8 billion to €9.2 billion. Stifel maintained a Hold rating on ASML, while Citi maintained a Buy rating, highlighting factors such as the accelerated digital transformation and maturation of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) technology. Raymond James reduced its price target for ASML but maintained a Strong Buy rating, focusing on the company's near-term quarterly bookings and 2025 financial targets.
Morgan Stanley shifted its rating from Overweight to Equalweight, citing a possible spending slowdown that could impact ASML's earnings growth in the years 2025 and 2026. Lastly, UBS downgraded ASML's stock from Buy to Neutral, and Barclays (LON:BARC) upgraded it from Equal Weight to Overweight. These are recent developments for ASML Holding NV.
InvestingPro Insights
ASML's current financial metrics and market position offer additional context to the challenges highlighted in Morgan Stanley's analysis. According to InvestingPro data, ASML's market capitalization stands at $286.33 billion, reflecting its significant position in the semiconductor industry. The company's P/E ratio of 40.29 and P/E ratio (Adjusted) of 46.16 for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 indicate that investors are still pricing in growth expectations, despite the recent guidance adjustments.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that ASML is a "Prominent player in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry," which aligns with the company's role in providing critical EUV and DUV tools to major chip manufacturers. However, the tip noting that ASML is "Trading at a high earnings multiple" corroborates the valuation concerns that may arise from the reduced sales forecast and margin outlook.
The company's ability to maintain dividend payments for 18 consecutive years, as highlighted by another InvestingPro Tip, demonstrates financial stability even in challenging market conditions. This could be reassuring for investors concerned about the revised guidance and potential slowdown in China's spending.
For readers interested in a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 8 additional tips that could provide further insights into ASML's financial health and market position.
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