Asian markets were mixed, whilst European futures are pointing to a stronger start. Signs of a tepid recovery are setting in after the worst week for global equities since mid – December.
Stocks are pointing cautiously higher after US employment figures on Friday fanned concerns over global growth. Wall Street fell for a fifth consecutive day on Friday after a dramatic headline non-farm payroll number. Just 20,000 jobs were created in February, well short of the 180,000 forecasts. The selloff hasn’t lasted, with the S&P futures and the dollar moving higher, thanks to the fact there were several bright spots in the employment report. Noticeably, wages increased at 3.4% yoy the fastest pace since April 2009, proving inflationary pressures are still alive and strong in the US economy.
More trouble for the euro?
Post-employment report, the dollar dropped sharply. This allowed the euro to pick up from Thursday’s low of $1.1176 following a particularly dovish Draghi. The euro could come under more pressure with the release of German industrial production figures. At -3.9% in December and expectations of -3.3% in January, investors could receive another strong reminder of the slowing growth momentum in Europe’s largest economy. This could also serve as further evidence to support Draghi’s dovish approach.
Pound falls ahead of key week for Brexit
The pound fell through $1.30, hitting a three week low overnight, ahead of a crucial week for Brexit and a volatile week for the pound. Brexit jitters are setting in ahead of a series of Brexit votes starting tomorrow. These votes will decide the future course of Brexit. Theresa May is not expected to achieve the numbers required to push her Brexit deal through Parliament, after she failed to obtain legally binding adjustments to the Irish backstop arrangement that Parliament requested.
With Theresa May’s deal now an almost certain failure, pound traders are concerned about what actually comes next. A delay is looking like the most likely outcome. The selloff in the pound shows that continued uncertainty for UK businesses, caused by a delay is nothing to cheer. FTSE futures are ahead of European counterparts, thanks to the weaker pound. Multinationals on the FTSE, which earn abroad will profit from the more beneficial exchange rate.
Boeing (NYSE:BA) in focus
Dow futures are hanging back from the rest of the pack. Boeing stocks and more broadly airline stock will be in focus after the second deadly crash for Boeings new 737 Max 8 in just six months. China has requested airlines ground Boeing 737 MAX 8 as a precautionary measure. This tragic incident will be a massive hurdle for Boeing to overcome.
Opening calls
FTSE to open 44 points higher at 7149
DAX to open 49 points higher at 11506
CAC to open 35 points higher at 5266
Contact: Jasper Lawler, Head of Research