- Fed FOMC Meeting, U.S. jobs report, and Big Tech earnings will be in focus this week.
- Amazon is a buy with a strong beat-and-raise quarter expected.
- PayPal is a sell with disappointing earnings, guidance on deck.
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U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday to cap off a volatile week on a positive note after a tame U.S. inflation report boosted optimism of an autumn interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Despite Friday’s upbeat performance, the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both ended the week lower for the second consecutive week, falling 0.8% and 2.1% respectively.
Source: Investing.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, gaining 0.8%, and notching its fourth straight positive week, while the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 jumped 3.5% as investors seemed to participate in a rotation out of the high-flying tech leaders and into small caps and cyclicals.
The blockbuster week ahead is expected to be an eventful one filled with several market-moving events, including a key Fed monetary policy meeting, as well as a closely watched employment report and a flurry of heavyweight tech earnings.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell could offer hints about when rate cuts might start when he speaks in the post-meeting press conference.
Markets see a less than 5% chance for a rate cut at this week’s meeting, but are fully pricing in a September cut, as per the Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Traders still largely expect two rate cuts by December.
Source: Investing.com
Besides the Fed, most important on the economic calendar will be Friday’s U.S. employment report for July, which is forecast to show the economy added 177,000 positions, slowing from jobs growth of 206,000 in June. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.1%.
Meanwhile, the earnings season hits full swing, with four of the massive ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks set to report their latest results. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reports on Tuesday night, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) on Wednesday, while Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) are due late Thursday.
These mega-caps will be joined by big names like Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), ARM Holdings (LON:ARM), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), Boeing (NYSE:BA), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), and Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG).
Regardless of which direction the market goes, below I highlight one stock likely to be in demand and another which could see fresh downside. Remember though, my timeframe is just for the week ahead, Monday, July 29 - Friday, August 2.
Stock To Buy: Amazon
I expect a strong performance from Amazon this week, as the tech titan will likely deliver another quarter of solid top-and bottom-line growth and provide an upbeat outlook thanks to ongoing strength in its cloud computing, e-commerce, and advertising businesses.
The Seattle, Washington-based company is scheduled to release its second quarter financial update after the U.S. market closes on Thursday at 4:00PM ET and sell-side confidence is brimming. A call with CEO Andy Jassy is set for 5:30PM ET.
Market participants expect a sizable swing in AMZN shares following the print, as per the options market, with a possible implied move of around 8% in either direction.
In a sign of increasing optimism, analysts have made substantial upward revisions to their EPS forecasts in the weeks leading up to the earnings report, according to exclusive data from InvestingPro. Notably, 25 out of the last 28 EPS revisions have been to the upside, reflecting growing confidence in the e-commerce and cloud giant’s financial performance.
Source: InvestingPro
Consensus calls for Amazon to post earnings per share of $1.02, jumping 56.9% from EPS of $0.65 in Q2 2023, as the company's focus on innovation, including investments in automation, is expected to drive operational efficiency. Revenue is expected to rise 10.6% from the same quarter a year earlier to $148.6 billion.
As always, most of the focus will be on the performance of Amazon’s cloud unit to see if it can maintain its pace of growth. Amazon Web Services revenue rose 17% in Q1 to $25 billion. Amazon’s AWS is widely considered as the leader in the cloud-computing space, ahead of Microsoft Azure and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Cloud.
But as is usually the case, it is more about guidance than results. Taking that into account, I reckon Amazon executives will provide an upbeat outlook for the months ahead as the company continues to benefit from its leading position in the e-commerce, advertising, cloud computing, and retail industries.
AMZN stock ended Friday’s session at $182.50, a tad below its all-time high of $201.20 reached on July 8. With a valuation of $1.9 trillion, Amazon is the fifth most valuable company listed on the U.S. stock exchange. Shares have significantly outperformed the broader market so far this year, climbing roughly 21%.
Source: Investing.com
It is worth noting that InvestingPro's AI-powered models rate Amazon with a near-perfect Financial Health Score of 4.0 out of 5.0, emphasizing its strong profit and sales growth outlook.
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Stock to Sell: PayPal
I foresee a disappointing week ahead for PayPal, with a potential breakdown to new lows on the horizon, as the embattled digital payments provider’s earnings and guidance will likely disappoint investors due to a combination of unfavorable consumer spending and customer demand trends.
PayPal’s second quarter print is scheduled to come out before the opening bell on Tuesday at 7:30AM ET and results are likely to take a hit from a slowdown in its core e-commerce business as it continues to lose market share in the online payments industry.
Not surprisingly, profit estimates have been revised to the downside 29 times in the past three months, according to an InvestingPro survey, compared to just one upward revision.
Based on moves in the options market, traders are pricing in a possible implied move of 9.1% in either direction in PayPal’s shares following the update.
Source: InvestingPro
Wall Street sees the digital payment processing company earning $0.98 a share, falling 15.5% from a profit of $1.16 in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, revenue is seen increasing 7.2% from last year to $7.84 billion.
Looking ahead, I believe PayPal’s CEO Alex Chriss will be conservative in his guidance for the remainder of the year due to the challenging operating environment.
The fintech company has faced significant headwinds in the past year due to a combination of slowing consumer spending and e-commerce trends as well as rising competition in the mobile payments processing industry from the likes of Apple, Google, Amazon, and Block (NYSE:SQ).
PYPL stock closed at $58.29 on Friday, not far from its 2024 low of $55.77 touched on February 8. At its current level, the San Jose, California-based company has a market cap of $61 billion. Shares are down 5% year-to-date, vastly underperforming the broader market over the same timeframe.
Source: Investing.com
It should be noted that PayPal has a below average InvestingPro ‘Financial Health’ score of 2.51 out of 5.0 for the latest period due to concerns over earnings growth prospects, and free cash flow.
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Disclosure: At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY (NYSE:SPY)), and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ). I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLK).
I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies' financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.