NVDA gained a massive 197% since our AI first added it in November - is it time to sell? 🤔Read more

Debt costs seen rising as Italy casts doubt on fiscal rules

Published 06/08/2018, 15:45
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio speaks in Rome
IT10YT=RR
-

By Francesco Guarascio

ROME (Reuters) - Economists on Monday predicted a further hike in Italy's debt servicing costs, as senior Italian officials said respecting European Union fiscal rules was not the priority for the new eurosceptic government.

Italy's bond yields were largely stable, after a sell-off of debt that on Friday briefly pushed yields on its 10-year bonds (IT10YT=RR) above 3 percent for the first time since June.

But economists said they believed the lull was only temporary, partly caused by an unannounced buyback operation carried out by the Italian Treasury on its outstanding short-dated bonds late on Aug. 3.

"We see the Italian 10-year yield rising to 3.5 percent by year-end," said economists at Capital Economics, a research firm, in a note which predicted a further rise to 4 percent next year.

Earlier on Monday, Italy's Deputy Prime Minister and head of the co-ruling anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, Luigi Di Maio, said fiscal rules would be applied only if they did not hamper the government's reform agenda.

Rome would try to apply planned reforms, which include tax cuts and higher spending on pensions and welfare, without breaching fiscal conditions set by the European Union to help Italy reduce its public debt, the highest in the bloc after bailed-out Greece.

But "our priority is the citizens and their needs," Di Maio told broadcaster RAI in an interview.

Asked whether he considered sticking to the 3 percent EU limit on the public deficit an unconditional duty, Di Maio said respecting fiscal rules "cannot be a way to say that we cannot implement" the reform agenda.

He also ruled out a hike in sales taxes in the next budget. Some observers have suggested such a hike could help pay for higher spending.

NOT THE "BIBLE"

Capital Economics said its forecasts were based on a scenario in which the Italian government implemented only a small portion of its planned reform programme. It said the programme as a whole could cost up to 67 billion euros (£59.77 billion) and bring the deficit to 6.2 percent of GDP.

Di Maio's main government partner Matteo Salvini, leader of the right-wing League, on Sunday made similar remarks to the deputy prime minister's.

"We'll do our best to avoid having to raise the deficit and try to respect all the little rules, but if the choice is between helping or ruining families, I say the 3 percent deficit-to-GDP ratio is not the Bible," Salvini told daily Corriere della Sera.

The party chiefs' remarks seem at odds with Economy Minister Giovanni Tria, an academic who is not from either party, who has repeatedly said he wants to prevent any rise in Italy's structural deficit, adjusted for economic growth fluctuations.

Senior government officials reached a compromise on the next budget's outline on Aug. 3. Tria said he was satisfied with the preliminary agreement, stressing it was compatible with budgetary objectives.

Another meeting on the budget is expected to take place on Wednesday, according to Italian newspapers.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio speaks in Rome

The government needs to agree its fiscal plan for next year by September and must present a draft budget to the European Commission by mid-October.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.