ING Economic and Financial Analysis

By Benjamin SchroederMarket expectations of policy easing for the next year are about to get tested tonight with the Federal Reserve likely to signal that there is still a job to get done. Yesterday's...

It is now a very consensus view that the Fed will push back against rate cut expectations. We expect the Dot Plots will show only 50bp of cuts in 2024. Still, markets may feel less comfortable about...

US: Pushback from the Fed UK: Bank of England to offer push back against rising tide of rate cut expectations Norway: Norges Bank to keep rates on hold after all Poland: Inflation in focus US:...

By Benjamin SchroederPayrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor market recession. We...

The big yen rally has been exacerbated by positioning factors, but markets may keep speculating on a BoJ December hike unless Japanese officials protest against hawkish bets before the meeting. A...

The Fed last raised rates in July and we think that marked the peak. There is growing evidence that tight monetary policy and restrictive credit conditions are having the desired effect on depressing...

Markets are ramping up rate cut bets, and Governor Bailey isn't happy about it Expect rate cut pushback on Thursday, but investors are right to be thinking about easing Sterling benefits from the BoE...

Energy – China’s crude oil imports drop Metals – China copper imports remain strong Agriculture - Coffee production in Africa declines Energy – China’s crude oil imports...

By Benjamin SchroederThe 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation expectations. The front end...

Ahead of tomorrow's US jobs data release, the short-term highlight in the FX market is the continued outperformance of the yen. This has nothing to do with a risk-averse environment (asset markets are...

Energy – Saudi slashes the official selling price for oil Metals – Vale expects stable iron ore output next year Agriculture - ICO raises coffee consumption estimates Energy – Saudi...

By Benjamin SchroederThe fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...

The dollar has shown resilience after disappointing JOLTS job openings data yesterday, leaving EUR/USD under pressure as the euro’s idiosyncratic negatives fuel bearish momentum. Today, the Bank...

Energy: Saudi expects OPEC+ to extend output cuts Metals: Nornickel increases nickel surplus estimates Agriculture: Canada increases wheat production estimates Energy: Saudi expects OPEC+ to extend...

Markets have scaled back some dovish bets on the Fed at the start of this week, perhaps starting to position more cautiously ahead of a Fed pushback and key data releases. Today, JOLTS and ISM...

2023 was meant to be a year of strength for the commodities complex. Commodities were the best performing asset class in 2021 and 2022, and coming into this year, it was a potential contender to be...