ING Economic and Financial Analysis

USD: Dollar in demand The dollar remains well bid as markets nervously monitor developments in the Middle East. Away from the humanitarian disaster in the region, the focus is on whether there is...

Energy - Brent back above $90/bbl Metals - Gold breaks higher Agriculture – Ukraine’s corn and soybean harvest jumps Energy - Brent back above $90/bbl The oil market saw quite a move on...

USD: CPI to challenge dollar correction Yesterday’s US PPI inflation figures for September surprised on the upside. The headline rate rose 0.5% month-on-month versus the 0.3% consensus while...

Energy - oil risk premium eroding The oil market gave back more of its post-Israel attack gains yesterday with ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent settling a little more than 2% lower on the day. This takes it...

Energy - European energy security concern grows The European gas market saw significant strength yesterday. TTF rallied more than 12.5% coming close to EUR50/MWh - a level last seen back in April....

Energy - supply risks lingerThe oil market managed to hold onto gains yesterday after opening higher following the terrible events that took place in Israel over the weekend. ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent...

USD: Consensus payrolls may be enough to send the dollar higher EUR: Contained mis-valuation GBP: 1.20 remains a real possibility CAD: Key jobs figures to steer rate expectations USD: Consensus...

Have US interest rates peaked? When will we see a sustainable recovery in Chinese demand? Can we expect energy prices to stabilise going into 2024? Is the energy transition enough to boost the need...

Oil saw its largest daily sell-off since July 2022 yesterday, with Brent settling 5.62% lower. This was despite no change in OPEC+ output policy, whilst the Saudis and Russia reaffirmed that their...

Major central bank forecasts Federal Reserve Our call: No further rate hikes with cuts starting from Spring 2024 Rationale: The Federal Reserve continues to signal the potential for a further rate...

USD: Reclaiming the crown EUR: Back-end yield premium weighing on the euro GBP: 1.2000 in sight AUD: New RBA governor fails to surprise USD: Reclaiming the crown We had pointed at quarter-end flows as...

Energy - OPEC+ JMMC meeting Metals – LME aluminium spreads strengthen Agriculture – USDA increases wheat stock estimates Energy - OPEC+ JMMC meeting The oil market remains well supported...

USD: Shut down averted – for a few weeks anyway EUR: Quarter-end bounce fades GBP: All quite on the BoE front CEE: Rates again the main driver for FX in the region USD: Shut down averted –...

US: A government shutdown looks probable UK: Bank of England survey to help cement expectations for a November pause US: A government shutdown looks probable A government shutdown now looks probable...

Energy - No further China export quotas Metals – Zinc jumps higher Agriculture – Brazilian coffee harvest advances smoothly Energy - No further China export quotas The rally in oil ran out...

Oil price rally likely to continue, but it's not sustainable in the longer run Is this the second wave of inflation that we thought would never come? How do current oil prices change our inflation...