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Markets are pricing almost six more rate hikes from here, and while we doubt the Bank of England would endorse that, we don't think it will want to push back heavily either given the recent tendency...
As Interest rate expectations in the UK surge, the Bank of England is set to hike rates by 25bp given inflation data continue to come in above forecasts. Norway's Central Bank is poised for another...
The Federal Reserve leaves US interest rates unchanged but signals more hikes are on the cards with some hawkish projections for the economy. July is a 'live' meeting, according to Powell, but a...
The European Central Bank continues its hiking cycle and shows no sign of pausing any time soon.One month ahead of the first anniversary of what has become the ECB’s most aggressive tightening...
It was a mixed set of data for the oil market yesterday. The IEA report was fairly neutral with both supply and demand growth estimates increasing by 0.2MMbbls/d. The weekly report from the EIA was...
The Fed will hold at this meeting, but expect some tightening from other sources aheadDirectionally, a decision to hold rates steady at this meeting should not have a material effect on the level of...
The latest UK jobs report is undeniably hawkish for the Bank of England.The unexpected fall in the unemployment rate to 3.8%, which is still pretty close to all-time lows, underscores the overall...
Markets are pricing four more BoE rate hikesA shock inflation reading last month sent Bank of England expectations soaring. Stubbornly high core inflation means traders now see another four rate hikes...
US: Favour a hawkish hold, but Tuesday's core inflation will be keyNext week is a major one for US economic events and data. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday is the highlight....
Energy – China's crude oil imports recover China’s crude oil imports recovered to 51.44mt or around 12.16MMbbls/d (up 17% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year) in May 2023, as some of the...
US labour market indicators take centre stageThe start of the week is proving a constructive one for bonds. It seems the feel-good factor felt by markets, after the White House and House leader...
USD: Progress on debt deal allows markets to focus on another Fed hike After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe...
After a rain-battered March, UK retail sales rose by 0.5% in April, partially offsetting the weakness seen in the prior month. And more importantly, the year-long retail recession we saw in 2022 looks...
Fed June optionality is already priced by the US curveLack of tangible progress in debt ceiling talks helped to draw a line under the global bond market sell-off late in yesterday's session, and we...
Last month’s surprisingly strong UK wage growth figure was almost certainly a key driver behind last week’s Bank of England decision to raise interest rates further. This month though, the...
Hawkish inflation and wage data last month point to another 25 basis-point rate Bank of England rate hike on Thursday. But the Bank's recent emphasis on the lagged impact of past tightening suggests...
Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...