NVDA Q3 Earnings Alert: Why our AI stock picker is still holding Nvidia stockRead More

S&P 500: Key Factors to Watch for a Local Top as Index Approaches 5,000 Milestone

Published 08/02/2024, 07:50
USD/CHF
-
US500
-
DX
-
HYG
-

I must say that writing these days is a real challenge, and yesterday was one of those days, mostly because it was just more of the same with the troubling three continuing to lead the charge.

There is just nothing else to say there.

Is it a rising wedge that is forming in the S&P 500? It looks like one. Does it mean anything? Not sure.

The definition of a rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as it moves higher. So, it fits that definition. S&P 500 Index-Hourly Chart

On top of that, we have divergences all over the place, most notably in the dollar. It has certainly been the case when looking at the inverse of the Swiss Franc.USD/CHF-3-Hour Chart

The inverse of the 1-month implied correlation index is also going in the opposite direction of the S&P 500.1-Month Implied Correlation Index

Meanwhile, there has been a divergence between the S&P 500 and HYG junk bond ETF.HYG-Daily Chart

There used to be a time when reserve balances even mattered, and to this point, those have stopped going higher as well.US Treasury Cash Balance

Financial conditions have even stopped easing.

CDX Index

Even the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average has been diverging.SPX-Daily Chart

So, unless the equity market has figured out a way to decouple itself from rates, the dollar, financial conditions, and everything else, the insanity of the last four months should be about over. I have nothing left to add.

YouTube Video –

Original Post

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.