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Michael Kramer

Mott Capital Management
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Kramer's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Kramer's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Well, the move lower in the equity market seemed pretty well telegraphed over the past few days, as I’ve noted the Tax Day TGA rise and the unimpressive price action on Monday and...
What a boring day! At least on Monday, the price moved some, but Tuesday was just boring. There was sideways trading ahead of today's March retail sales report. I’m not sure how much that was playing...
US Dollar and Stocks Diverge: More Downside Ahead?
By Michael Kramer - Apr 15, 2025
Stocks were higher, lower, and higher, and they faded towards the end, trading within a fairly wide range throughout Monday. More importantly, the US dollar continues to weaken significantly, falling...
The misinformation age has gone from bad to worse, which means the onus is on all of us to read reports thoroughly, not just the headlines and what is being talked about on social media platforms. In...
At this point, I’m just about ready to retire because I am seeing things I have no memory of or have never seen before. The USD/CHF fell by more than 3.8%, a monumental move. It was either a newfound...
It took a few days and a near-bond market meltdown to break Trump, but he finally broke. As I noted yesterday, it was starting to look ugly out there, and by night, the bond market rollercoaster rise...
The Market Is Starting To Look Really Ugly  
By Michael Kramer - Apr 09, 2025
Things are getting ugly, especially in rates and FX. Significant decoupling is occurring, indicating a potentially massive flight out of the U.S. and severe liquidity constraints now hitting the...
It was an enjoyable day in stocks, but a more interesting day in rates, with the 10-year rate, based on my last check, soaring by 20 bps to 4.2%. The 10-year rate has been positively correlated with...
The Ultimate Game of Risk: Trump Vs. the Market  
By Michael Kramer - Apr 07, 2025
We see markets probe all the time, and right now, it seems we’re in a probing mood, searching for that “put” where a policymaker panics. As of Friday, however, it was falling on deaf ears—and Powell...
As I’ve mentioned, the assumptions behind S&P 500 earnings estimates were too optimistic, and valuations made this one of the most expensive markets in a generation. So, we’ll see where things...