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So, it was another rather boring day, with the S&P 500 finishing flat, rates up, the dollar up, and implied volatility somewhat higher. This has been a very odd earnings season. Last night, I...
It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist. Yet the forecast still resonates...
I must say that writing these days is a real challenge, and yesterday was one of those days, mostly because it was just more of the same with the troubling three continuing to lead the charge. There...
It is interesting to me that, with as important and liquid as the inflation-linked bond market is, the tactical allocation between TIPS and nominal bonds is at best an afterthought for most...
We wrote this four-part inflation series in response to the graph below, implying that prices are on the same inflation roller coaster ride as the 1970s. If you have read the first three parts of...
Week Ahead 5th-9th February MON: Japanese Jibun Final Composite/Services PMI (Jan), Chinese Caixin Final Services PMI (Jan), German TradeBalance (Dec), EZ/UK/US Final Composite/Services PMI (Jan), US...
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return, based on the average for three models (defined below). GMI is...
This week, we discuss the following questions: The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England hold rates but what did they have to say about the timing of rate cuts? Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues...
As FOMC rides into the sunset until March, the US Dollar Index is left to fend for itself amid the hawkish (or at least not yet dovish) echos of Jerome Powell’s assertion that the market should not...
BoE drops its tightening bias. Market reaction: Rates back up and sterling edges higher BoE drops its tightening bias Heading into today’s Bank of England MPC meeting, the market had been...
The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, crushing March rate-cut hopes. This should have been expected as the central bank's priority is to eliminate any possibility of inflation returning. As...
By Padhraic Garvey We are a bit surprised the market has not moved more on the Fed’s firm preference for a holding pattern on rates. Bottom line we see pressure for yields to edge higher on a...
Part One of this series led with a graph implying that we are embarking on an inflation rollercoaster for the next ten years, similar to the experience of 1965 to 1982. Parts One and Two explained the...
Throughout 2023’s second half, financial publications Fisher Investments UK reviews touted cooling European and US inflation (broadly rising prices across the economy). Yet price levels for many goods...
Will last week’s news of substantially stronger-than-expected growth for US economic output in 2023’s fourth quarter extend into this year’s Q1? It’s too soon to make...