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Is the Next Big Correction in Cryptos or A.I.?

Published 01/11/2024, 11:36
Updated 10/12/2024, 07:33
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As investors navigate the turbulent waters of 2024's financial markets, two sectors stand out for their explosive growth and heightened speculation: cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence. While both show bubble characteristics, crypto's deep integration into the global financial system presents unique systemic risks reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis.

Crypto's Hidden Tentacles in Global Finance

The cryptocurrency market has become deeply intertwined with traditional finance through multiple channels:

Major Financial Institution Exposure

  • BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) manages over $50 billion in crypto assets through its Bitcoin ETF and other products
  • Fidelity offers crypto in retirement accounts and institutional services
  • JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), despite CEO Jamie Dimon's crypto skepticism, provides crypto clearing services
  • Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) actively trades crypto derivatives and offers prime brokerage services
  • BNY Mellon provides custody for digital assets
  • State Street (NYSE:STT) handles crypto ETF administration


Banking Sector Integration

  • Silvergate Bank's collapse demonstrated how crypto exposure can rapidly destabilize traditional banks
  • Signature Bank's failure highlighted risks of concentrated crypto deposits
  • Regional banks hold significant exposure through lending against crypto assets
  • Swiss banks, including Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) (before its collapse), developed significant crypto trading operations

The Potential Domino Effect: A Scenario Analysis

Here's how a crypto crisis could cascade through the financial system:

Trigger Event

  1. Major stablecoin (e.g., USDT or USDC) faces redemption crisis
  2. Circle (USDC issuer) forced to liquidate commercial paper holdings
  3. Money market stress similar to March 2020 COVID crisis


First Wave: Crypto Markets

  • Stablecoin depeg causing forced liquidations
  • Bitcoin and other crypto assets face severe sell pressure
  • Crypto ETFs experience massive outflows
  • DeFi protocols face cascading liquidations


Second Wave: Traditional FinanceInvestment Management Impact:

  • BlackRock's crypto ETF faces billions in losses
  • Institutional investors mark down crypto holdings
  • Pension funds with crypto exposure report significant losses

Banking Sector Stress:

  • Banks with crypto loans face defaults
  • Crypto companies withdraw deposits from traditional banks
  • Credit lines to crypto firms frozen

Market Infrastructure:

  • Clearinghouses handling crypto derivatives require additional margin
  • Prime brokers face counterparty defaults
  • Market makers withdraw liquidity



Third Wave: Broader EconomyCredit Markets:

  • Commercial paper markets seize
  • Corporate bond spreads widen
  • Banking sector credit tightens

Traditional Assets:

  • Tech stocks sell off due to crypto correlation
  • Gold initially drops as margin calls force liquidation
  • Real estate markets stress as credit tightens


A.I. Sector: Contained but Connected

While A.I. shows bubble characteristics, its risks are more contained:

  • NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s $2 trillion market cap might be excessive, but its hardware business has real revenues
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s AI investments are backed by diverse business lines
  • Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL)'s AI development is funded by stable advertising revenue
  • Meta's AI investments represent a small portion of its total operation


Key Differences from Crypto:

  • Limited leverage in AI investments
  • Clear regulatory oversight
  • Tangible intellectual property
  • Diverse revenue streams
  • Limited interconnection with financial markets


Investment Implications

Prudent risk management requires:Direct Exposure Management:

  • Limit crypto positions to 1-2% of portfolio
  • Review fund holdings for hidden crypto exposure
  • Monitor counterparty risks carefully

Indirect Risk Mitigation:

  • Stress test portfolios for crypto contagion
  • Maintain higher cash reserves
  • Consider put options on crypto-correlated assets
  • Review bank exposure carefully

While both crypto and A.I. show bubble characteristics, crypto poses a greater systemic risk due to its complex integration with traditional finance. The next major financial crisis might originate from crypto markets, but its impact would likely spread far beyond digital assets.

Unlike the relatively contained risks in A.I. investments, crypto's interconnections with traditional finance create potential for a 2008-style systemic crisis.

The key lesson from both the 2008 crisis and recent crypto bank failures is that financial contagion often emerges from unexpected connections.

Investors must look beyond direct exposure to understand how their portfolios might be affected by crypto market stress, even if they hold no digital assets themselves.

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