Benzinga - by Bibhu Pattnaik, Benzinga Staff Writer.
A recent poll by the New York Times/Siena College shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by five percentage points, a result that has been met with skepticism by some Democrats.
A spokesperson for Biden's campaign criticized the poll, suggesting that it "consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating Joe Biden," highlighting a broader distrust of the accuracy of polls among Democrats, reported The Hill.
This skepticism is not unfounded, as Democrats have pointed to various instances where Trump's polling numbers did not translate into electoral success. They have cited primary results where Trump underperformed, and elections under Biden's presidency where Democrats exceeded expectations.
Speaking to The Hill, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg echoed this sentiment, stating that the strength of Trump's support is being overestimated.
Particular scrutiny has been directed at the New York Times poll's findings regarding voter demographics.
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For example, the poll's suggestion that women are evenly split between Trump and Biden has raised eyebrows among Democractic strategists, considering Biden's significant lead among women in the 2020 exit polls.
Democrats also said that the poll's claim of Trump leading among Latino voters seems inconsistent with Biden's significant advantage in this demographic during the 2020 election.
Despite these concerns, the Biden campaign has remained confident, drawing on historical voting patterns and recent electoral victories as evidence of its competitive edge.
Democrats have managed to secure key wins in the face of supposed "red waves," with notable successes in Senate races, gubernatorial elections and the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, often leveraging abortion rights as a central issue.
While some Democrats have argued that Trump's actual electoral performance has often fallen short of poll predictions, others have pointed to instances where he outperformed expectations, particularly in the 2016 presidential race.
As the election approaches, both parties are bracing for a tightly contested race, with national polling indicating a close battle ahead.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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