Investors will not have long to wait to hear how retailers fared over the Christmas trading period as a string of retailers line up to offer updates this week.
Next , M&S, Tesco (LON:TSCO), Sainsbury and B&M European Value are all due to report over the coming days, alongside other industry players Hilton Foods (LON:HFG) Group PLC and Greggs PLC (LSE:LON:GRG).
Early signals from discounters Lidl and Aldi have pointed to solid festive trading for grocery retailers so far, with each flagging 3.4% and 7.0% sales growth for December respectively.
However, the flurry of rival updates is set to clarify whether cost pressures saw shoppers flock to the cheaper retailers to fill Christmas baskets, or stick by staple brands.
Figures taken from UBS, Deutsche and companies
Tuesday will see Next PLC (LSE:LON:NXT) kick off proceedings, as the clothing and homeware chain looks to meet ambitions for its first ever £1 billion-plus profit.
Next has become renowned for repeatedly lifting guidance in recent years, though shares have dropped by 10% from an all-time high in excess of 10,500p seen last autumn “as the quantum of the upgrades has shrunk,” AJ Bell (LON:AJBA) analysts pointed out.
Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:LON:MKS) and Tesco will then feature on a packed Thursday, alongside B&M, Hilton Foods and bakery chain Greggs.
For M&S, Thursday’s update comes against a backdrop of mounting expectations for a bumper Christmas, flagged by Kantar and NIQ figures in December.
Each set pointed to a 10%-plus jump in grocery sales over the three months to December 1 as shoppers appeared to turn to premium offerings for their festive season treats.
Indeed, “we have the best Christmas food range I've seen in my time at M&S,” chief executive Stuart Machin noted previously.
The sector data also alluded to “good momentum” in Tesco’s pre-Christmas trading, UBS analysts pointed out, as closest rival Sainsbury’s took market share too.
Tesco PLC (OTC:TSCDY) (LSE:TSCO) racked up its largest share of the grocery market, at 28.1%, since late 2017, according to the figures, while J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY), which reports on Friday, took 15.9%.
Kantar’s latest grocery market share figures on Tuesday should also paint a picture of this Christmas’ retail winners before their respective updates.
“It’s been a mixed 12 months for the retail sector in the UK,” XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks commented.
“Sainsbury’s share price is down 8% in the past 12 months, Tesco is higher by 25%, M&S is higher by 38% and Next is up by 17%, so it has not been all doom and gloom.”
“However, the next leg in their stock prices will be determined by the all-important post-Christmas trading update, so these reports matter."
Strong readings could see Sainsbury's (LON:SBRY) play catch up and add a positive glow to the FTSE 100 at the start of this year, she said.
“However, early signs suggest that footfall was weak in the Christmas period, and it will be worth watching to see if online sales made up for this.”
Post Christmas, attention is no doubt set to turn to outlooks for 2025, UBS analysts added, not least any commentary around rebounding inflation and consumer willingness to spend.
“At this early stage we expect companies to retain a cautiously optimistic view of 2025,” UBS said.
According to Citi analysts, UK discretionary retail expenditure is set to decline by 0.4% in real terms over the year, while tax hikes in last October’s Budget are expected to accelerate inflation.