Macro week ahead: GDP figures, US PCE and Eurozone inflation to come

© Reuters. Macro week ahead: GDP figures, US PCE and Eurozone inflation to come

Proactive Investors - After the excitement surrounding interest rate decisions on either side of the pond, the macro world is expected to dial down a touch although there is still plenty for investors to get stuck into.

Health checks of the US and UK economies and a key US inflation gauge will dominate the week ahead alongside inflation reports in Europe.

With the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank all pledging to ‘follow the data’, the figures could further cement expectations of whether interest rates have peaked or not.

UK economy continues to flatline

On Friday, the final reading for second-quarter UK GDP will be released. Preliminary figures showed the UK economy expanded 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, following 0.1% growth in the first quarter and beating forecasts of a flat reading, preliminary estimates showed.

On Thursday, the Bank of England indicated it expected GDP to rise only slightly in the third quarter while Friday’s PMI figures pointed to an economy heading towards recession.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is also set to publish the full GDP backdata detailing post-2021 revisions.

August credit data is also due with net consumer credit likely around £1.2 billion, with 48,000 mortgage approvals.

Fed's preferred inflation measure

ING said the key release in the US to watch will be Friday’s August personal income and spending report.

"After a strong July, we expect to see weaker spending coming through, especially in real terms, with higher gasoline prices responsible for much of the increase in nominal spending on goods, based on what we saw in the retail sales report," ING said.

ING expects the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation, to come in a little higher than the market is forecasting.

"We look for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in prices, similar to the CPI report, whereas the consensus is for a more benign 0.2% month-on-month print."

A final GDP reading for the second quarter is also due. Expectations for growth in the quarter were reduced to an annualized rate of 2.1% compared to the preliminary figure of 2.4% and the first quarter's expansion of 2.0%.

Elsewhere, durable goods orders, new home sales and consumer confidence readings will be closely watched while a number of Fed officials will hit the airwaves to explain their thinking on where monetary policy goes from here.

Eurozone inflation updates

In Europe, next week is all about inflation with figures in Germany and Spain on Thursday and France, Italy and the Euro area on Friday.

The German Ifo business climate survey will also be closely watched for an indication of the state of the German economy.

Both the headline and core numbers are expected to fall in the Eurozone on the back of base effects, but the higher oil price may have a limiting effect on energy inflation.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) sees Euro area aggregate core inflation at 4.6% on an annual basis.

There are large base effects that are moving inflation in both directions, it points out.

Energy in Spain is pushing higher while base effects from transport measures in Germany in 2022 are pushing core lower.

ING forecasts a fall in the headline rate of inflation to 4.6% in September from 5.2% with the core rate dropping to 4.8% from 5.3%.

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