Proactive Investors -
- FTSE 100 down 34 points at 7,479
- Food price inflation drops to 9.1% says Kantar
- Barclays (LON:BARC) slips as Qatar wealth fund cuts stake
Private sector rebound suggests recession will be avoided
Gabriella Dickens at Pantheon Macroeconomics thinks the rebound in November’s composite PMI adds credence to her view that a recession will be avoided this year.
Admittedly, it still is consistent with activity barely rising in the fourth quarter but the headline index is more likely to rise further in December than drop back below 50, given that the future activity index increased in November and was only just below its long-run average.
In addition, she continues to think that S&P Global’s bespoke seasonal adjustment methodology is excessively weighing down the services PMI.
She estimates that the services PMI would have printed at 54.4 in November, not 52.3, if S&P had simply used the standard procedure for seasonal adjustment and made no discretionary tweaks of its own.
Trading in small caps to resume, says LSEG
An update on the trading issues - The London Stock Exchange is to resume trading in its smaller cap shares after a trading halt that lasted almost half an hour.
FTSE 100 and 250 stocks were unaffected by the halt.
"We are now resuming trading on impacted instruments" the London Stock Exchange said. "Instruments will go into auction at 09:55 with uncrossing beginning at 10:15."
London Stock Exchange Is Hit By Third Outage Since October pic.twitter.com/7AerZwb5Wk— Baron Investments (@baroninvestment) December 5, 2023
London Stock Exchange investigating trading problems
The London Stock Exchange is currently investigating an issue impacting its trading/information system.
Currently only FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and IOB (international order book) securities are available for trading.
*LSE INVESTIGATING ISSUE WITH ITS TRADING, INFORMATION SYSTEM pic.twitter.com/8b6ftNDxbz— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) December 5, 2023
UK private sector returns to growth in November
The UK private sector expanded for the first time since July, helped by an improving service economy, according to a report on Tuesday.
The S&P Global/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply UK services PMI index rose to 50.9 points in November, from 49.5 in October, above an earlier flash estimate of 49.5 points.
UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Nov F: 50.9 (est 50.5; prev 50.5)- S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Nov F: 50.7 (est 50.1; prev 50.1)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) December 5, 2023
“Rising output reflected a slight rise in new orders, but survey respondents continued to report subdued demand and low confidence among clients,” S&P said.
“Service providers experienced another sharp increase in their average cost burdens, largely due to rising staff wages and elevated inflationary pressures across the broader economy,” the report continued.
Dr John Glen, chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply said: "After three months of continuous contraction, the services sector began to show signs of life.”
He highlighted “the biggest rise in new orders since July and export orders since August,” while a softening in the headline rate of inflation and improved raw material prices “set the scene for some clients to commit to new work while the remainder stayed mostly cautious until there were stronger improvements in the UK economy.”
The wider composite PMI reading, calculated using a weighted average of the services and manufacturing data, rose to 50.7 points in November, from 48.7 in October.
It was the first time since July that the composite PMI has risen above the 50.0 mark.