Proactive Investors - 7.29am: Housing market remaining resilient
House prices rising 1.2% month on month in November, after taking account of seasonal effects, puts house prices just 1% below the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022, says Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist
"The acceleration in house price growth is surprising, since affordability remains stretched by historic standards, with house prices still high relative to average incomes and interest rates well above pre-Covid levels," he says.
The upcoming changes to stamp duty are not the likely cause, he believes, since the majority of mortgage applications began before Rachel Reeves' Budget announcement.
Gardner says housing market activity has "remained relatively resilient in recent months", with mortgage approvals approaching levels seen pre-pandemic, despite the higher interest rate environment.
"Solid labour market conditions, with low levels of unemployment and strong income gains, even after taking account of inflation, have helped underpin a steady rise in activity and house prices since the start of the year.
"Household balance sheets are also in good shape with debt levels at their lowest levels relative to household income since the mid-2000s."
He sees the upcoming stamp duty changes as providing an incentive for buyers to bring forward house purchases to avoid paying additional tax, which is "likely" to lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025, especially in March, and a corresponding period of weakness in the following through to June or even September, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes.
"But, providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth."
7.22am: House prices up 3.7%
Fresh house price data may grease the wheels of certain sectors in the first trading day in December, with the fastest rate of annual growth in two years.
UK house prices rose 1.2% in November compared to the month before, according to Nationwide figures, helping the annual growth rate rebound to 3.7% from 2.4% in October.
House prices are now just 1% below their all-time peak.
7.14am: Stocks seen edging up
Futures had the FTSE 100 climbing just above the mark by two points to 8,303 ahead of trading on Monday.
London’s blue chip’s had gained 25 points over the course of last week, aiding the index to a 103 point, or 1.3% gain for November.
Overnight, Asian markets largely gained, led by China’s Shenzhen index which ticked up 1.4%.
Back in London, attention was on house price data from Nationwide, alongside manufacturing purchasing managers index data.
5.00am: House prices in focus
Monday kicks off with house price data from Nationwide for November after Zoopla reported a 1.5% increase through October last week.
Announcements due:
Finals: SRT Marine Systems PLC (LON:SORA)
US earnings: Zscaler Inc (NASDAQ:ZS)
AGMs: R8 Capital Investments PLC
Economic announcements: Nationwide House Prices (UK), PMI Manufacturing (UK), PMI Manufacturing(US), Construction Spending (US), ISM Manufacturing (US)