- FTSE 100 up 2 points
- House market recovery could slow - RICS
- ECB cuts interest, slashed growth forecast
1.37pm: US producer inflation overshoots expectations
US producer prices grew more rapidly than expected in November, figures showed on Thursday.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the producer price index climbed by 0.4% month on month, ahead of expectations for a 0.2% uptick.
On an annual basis, the index climbed by 3% in the largest rise since February and compared to expectations for a 2.6% uptick.
Futures continued to point to a negative start on Wall Street following the figures.
1.22pm: ECB cuts interest by 25 basis points as economic growth forecast cut
The European Central Bank has opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.
“Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.00%, 3.15% and 3.40% respectively,” it said in a statement.
Disinflation was “well on track”, according to the ECB, but forecasts for economic recovery across the eurozone had been lowered.
“Staff see the economy growing by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027,” it added.
This was against forecasts for growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
1.17pm: IEA lifts oil demand outlook
The International Energy Agency has lifted its forecast for oil demand over the course of 2025 on the back of pledges for further stimulus measures to buoy the Chinese economy.
Oil demand is expected to tick up by 1.1 million barrels a day, the Paris-based organisation said on Thursday, against its previous forecast of a 990,000 daily uplift.
The increase would largely reflect demand in “Asian countries due to the impact of China’s recent stimulus measures,” the IEA said in a monthly report.
“Even so, persistent overproduction from some OPEC+ members, robust supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries and relatively modest global oil demand growth leaves the market looking comfortably supplied in 2025,” it added.
Benchmark Brent crude was trading broadly flat at US$73.47 a barrel on Thursday.
12.59pm: Pound dips ahead of ECB rate decision
Sterling lost ground to the euro ahead of the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday.
Come the afternoon, the pound was down 0.21% against the euro at €1.2122.
It had surged to a two and a half year high earlier in the week as expectations grew for the ECB and Bank of England to set out diverging paths for interest rates ahead.
Anticipations are for the ECB to cut interest by 25 basis points on Thursday and the Bank of England to hold in its decision later in the month.
The ECB is then expected to cut more aggressively than its London-based counterpart into next year.
“The market's attention will be on hints regarding future actions,” Tickmill Group partner Patrick Munnelly said ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision.
“If a 25 basis point cut occurs today, the market anticipates over 60 basis points of cumulative easing spread across the January and March meetings.
“In other words, market expectations suggest a significant likelihood that one of the first two meetings in 2025 will see a 50 basis point cut, alongside a 25 basis point reduction at the other meeting.”
12.38pm: Drax shares up on agreement to sell wood chips for sustainable aviation fuel
Drax Group (LSE:LON:DRX) PLC gained after unveiling a deal to supply wooden pellets for sustainable aviation fuel production in the US on Thursday.
FTSE 250-listed power generator Drax said it had agreed “heads of terms” to sell over a million tonnes of the biomass pellets to US-based Pathway Energy annually.
Pathway will then use the pellets, taken from cut-down trees, to produce sustainable aviation fuel at a planned plant in Port Arthur, Texas.
Sustainable aviation fuel, which can be made using the likes of waste, is expected to play a major part in decarbonising the aviation industry.
However, Drax has repeatedly come under scrutiny over its use of wood pellets, which are controversially classed as carbon-neutral, to produce power... Read more
Shares climbed 2.3% to 650p on Thursday.
12.02pm: Nasdaq to fall from record as Wall Street eyes further inflation data
Wall Street appeared on course to fall back after Wednesday’s in-line inflation reading and subsequent surge in rate cut bets sent the Nasdaq above 20,000 for the first time.
Futures had the Nasdaq falling 0.3% ahead of Thursday’s opening bell, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones were seen down 0.2% each respectively.
After Wednesday’s confirmation that the consumer price index climbed as expected by 2.7% in November, attention was set to be on Thursday’s producer price index reading.
“This [...] has significantly influenced market sentiment, leading many to believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement a rate cut during their upcoming meeting on December 18,” Tickmill Group partner Patrick Munnelly commented.
“The anticipation surrounding these economic indicators reflects the ongoing concerns about inflation and the overall health of the economy, as investors and analysts closely monitor the Federal Reserve's actions and decisions.”
11.44am: C&C appoints new boss after accounting errors
Magners and Bulmers owner C&C has unveiled AG Barr’s former head as chief executive after its last boss quit following a string of costly accounting errors.
Roger White, who headed the Irn Bru maker for over two decades, will take the helm in January after former chief executive Patrick McMahon abruptly left earlier this year.
McMahon’s departure had followed a string of errors that forced C&C to register €17 million in retrospective charges as three years worth of accounts were restated.
Shares moved 0.7% higher on Thursday.
11.20am: Gas output hits record as still weather hold back wind
Gas accounted for the vast majority of Britain's energy on Thursday as still weather hampered wind power production across Europe.
Gas accounted for as much as 70% of the country’s power demand over the course of the morning, meaning Britain was more reliant than ever on the fossil fuel.
Less than 4% came from wind in the meantime, according to data compiled by grid.iamkate, owing to still conditions.
Wind averaged 39.5% of Britain’s power over the course of the past week, with Storm Darragh last weekend having fuelled output.
Spot prices were up at £294.30 per megawatt hour on Thursday as a result, against the week’s average of £94.18.
The so-called ‘dunkelflaute’ phenomenon also weighed on wind production in Europe, sending German power futures to a near two-decade high of €900 per megawatt hour for Thursday evening.
10.57am: Currys soars after flagging AI laptop demand boom
Currys PLC (LSE:LON:CURY)’s warnings over swelling costs on the back of Budget appeared irrelevant as shares surged 14.4% to 90.35p following Thursday’s interim update.
Having flagged growing demand for artificial intelligence laptops and solid trading ahead of its peak Christmas trading period, Currys’ update made for upbeat reading despite an anticipated £32 million annual uplift in costs following October’s Budget.
Cash flow surged from £4 million to £50 million during the first half, while an adjusted £9 million pre-tax profit was recorded, against a £16 million loss last time out.
The outlook around AI-powered laptops, for which Currys said it held a 75% share of the market, appeared to draw attention though.
AJ Bell (LON:AJBA) analyst Dan Coatsworth noted the “structural shift” towards such “must have” products offered a “saving grace” for Currys.
“Demand is growing for these products and Currys is laughing all the way to the bank,” he said.
Charles Stanley’s Garry White added: “It’s not just earnings at US big tech that has momentum generated by the rise of AI - high-street stalwart Currys is reaping the benefits too.”
Panmure Liberum and Berenberg both doubled down on ‘buy’ ratings for Currys on the back of the update, citing further profit and free cash flow improvement ahead.
Panmure also lifted its share price target from 135p to 155p, noting Currys was “a stand-out in a consumer landscape trapped by lack of growth and earnings momentum”.
10.01am: Cheers. Diageo (LON:DGE) tops index after UBS double upgrade
Guinness maker Diageo topped the FTSE 100 risers today adding 3.5% to 2,577p as Swiss bank UBS turned super bullish on the spirits group.
The bank double-raised its rating to 'buy' from ‘sell’ based on the prospects for strong growth in areas such as tequila.
UBS concedes that the US market remains tough and 2025 is likely to see volumes decline generally but the cycle will turn and it is confident that the US spirits sector will be back to growth of around 3% annually in time.
For Diageo specifically, UBS expects tequila arm (Don Julio) and whisky-based Crown Royal to help it significantly outperform its peers in the US.
“Following 31% EPS downgrades over the past two years, we think investors can gain comfort the business is towards the end of its earnings downgrade cycle,” said the bank.
As well as the buy rating, UBS has raised its price target to £29.20 (from £23).
FTSE 100 up 17 at 8,319.
9.29am: Government hits councils with mandatory housing targets
Councils have been hit with mandatory house-building targets as the government bids to create 1.5 million new homes in the coming years.
Local authorities will have to collectively deliver a total of 370,000 new homes a year under the target, as planning restrictions are also eased.
Councils will have 12 weeks from Thursday’s publishing of an updated National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) to commit to timetables for new building plans.
“Ministers will not hesitate to use their existing suite of intervention powers to ensure plans are put in place,” the government warned.
Under the new framework, ‘green belt’ boundaries, designed to limit urban developments, will be reviewed, while brownfield sites will be prioritised.
The least affordable areas for housing will also see targets increase, while so-called ‘golden rules’ will mean developers have to prioritise necessary infrastructure... Read more
Housebuilder stocks moved slightly lower on the news, with Barratt Redrow (LON:RDW) PLC (LSE:BTRW), Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:LON:TW.) and Vistry Group (LON:VTYV) PLC (LSE:VTY) all dipping.
8.56am: Energy tariffs to be offered without standing charges
Energy firms may have to offer tariffs without standing charges under proposals laid out by regulator Ofgem for next winter.
Standing charges, which are paid at a flat rate regardless of energy usage, have come under scrutiny recently after having risen by 43% since 2019.
These cover the cost of grid connections, such as phone line rentals and companies' other infrastructure bills, and are charged on a daily basis.
Ofgem’s proposal would see suppliers move to offering a price-capped tariff including standing charges, but also deals with the costs absorbed into usage-linked energy prices.
“Many people feel very strongly that standing charges are unfair,” Ofgem general markets director Tim Jarvis said.
“We want to give consumers the ability to make the choice that’s right for them without putting any one group of consumers at a disadvantage.”
A previous public consultation by Ofgem over standing charges fetched some 30,000 responses, with the fees typically over £300 a year for households.
8.37am: De La Rue (LON:DLAR) see profit drop but currency order book surge
Bank note maker De La Rue PLC (LSE:DLAR) has reported a drop in profit over the first half of the year but said its currency order book grew to the highest level in five years.
Adjusted operating profit fell from £7.9 million to £7.3 million during the six months to September, De La Rue reported on Thursday.
Revenue slipped 10.2% to £145.1 million in the meantime, while net debt grew 22.4% to £109.4 million.
Growing currency orders, fueled by a “significant increase in polymer orders”, would fuel trading ahead though, De La Rue noted.
Significant deals over the third quarter had brought its currency order book to £338 million, it said, prompting guidance for full-year adjusted operating profit in the mid to higher £20 millions to be reiterated.
“The material new orders that we have won in recent months will begin to convert into increased revenue as we move into the next financial year and solidly underpin our growth expectations,” chief executive Clive Vacher commented.
“With these firm foundations, our ongoing currency business is now well positioned to take full advantage of an improving market, with a substantial upward step change in activity in 2025 and beyond.”
Shares dipped 2.3% on Thursday.
8.13am: FTSE 100 opens higher
London’s blue chips extended gains as trading got underway on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 climbing 11 points to 8,313.
Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) headed up the early risers, while Glencore PLC (LSE:LON:GLEN), Antofagasta PLC (LSE:LON:ANTO) and Anglo American PLC (LSE:LON:AAL) also gained as a volatile week for miners continued.
A further gain for oil saw shares in heavyweights Shell PLC (LSE:LON:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) and BP PLC (LSE:NYSE:BP (LON:BP).) also tick up early on.
Primark owner Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:LON:ABF) and British American Tobacco PLC (LSE:LON:BATS) led the fallers in the meantime.
8.06am: House market recovery at risk of slowing - RICS
Britain’s house market recovery could be hampered by recent mortgage rate increases and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, a survey on Thursday showed.
According to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), house prices grew for a fourth consecutive month in November, with its survey showing a net balance of 25% of respondents reported an uptick, against 16% in October.
New buyer enquiries remained positive with a largely unchanged reading of 12%, but the net balance of respondents highlighting higher agreed sales volumes fell from 8% to 1%.
The net balance anticipating an uptick in sales activity ahead also moderated, RICS said.
“Although the latest survey results continue to signal a steady improvement in buyer demand across the residential market, the broader macro environment is likely to pose additional headwinds moving forward,” analytics head Tarrant Parsons commented.
“Most significantly, the recent rise in mortgage interest rates may curtail the recovery in market activity before long, and this is reflected in the slightly less optimistic sales expectations data coming through this month.”
Tenant demand for rentals declined in the meantime, RICS added, while landlord instructions continued to fall, indicating “imbalance between supply and demand”.
“Moreover, measures of consumer and business confidence across the economy have deteriorated of late and, if sustained, this could begin to feed through into housing market conditions in the months ahead,” Parsons added.
7.42am: Currys flags price hikes after Budget
Currys PLC (LSE:CURY) has said price rises next year are 'inevitable' as costs grow due to higher employer national insurance and minimum wage growth.
Costs are set to increase by £32 million annually on the back of October’s Budget, the electronics retailer flagged in a trading update on Thursday.
The warning adds to alarm bells from a host of firms over inflation and business failures after the Budget’s employer national insurance rate increase and threshold cut.
“Despite this unwelcome and material headwind, we remain confident,” Currys added.
Group revenue had grown by 1% to £3.9 billion over the first half of the year, the company reported, fuelled by a 6% increase within its UK and Irish business.
A £9 million adjusted pre-tax profit was recorded, against a £16 million loss over the first half of last year, while free cash flow climbed from £4 million to £50 million... Read more
7.13am: Stocks seen higher
Futures had the FTSE 100 just above the mark ahead of Thursday’s open, up four points at 8,324.
London’s blue chips had racked up a 21-point gain on Wednesday, aided by gains for gold miners, alongside the likes of Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY) on news the Supreme Court would hear an appeal in a case around motor finance mis-selling.
Overnight, Asian markets largely gained after Wednesday’s in-line US inflation figures looked to clear the way for an interest rate cut in the world’s largest economy.
Back in London, focus on Thursday was on an update from Currys PLC (LSE:CURY) and house price data from RICS.
5.00am: Thursday's schedule
Currys is among those set to update on Thursday, while UK house price figures from RICS will also be in focus.
Budget-related cost pressures will be the focus when Currys updates... Read more
Announcements due:
Interims: 4GLOBAL PLC, Currys PLC (LSE:CURY), De La Rue PLC (LSE:DLAR), Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC, Newriver Reit PLC
Finals: Benchmark Holdings PLC, RWS Holdings (LON:RWS) PLC
US earnings: Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST)
AGMs: Aeorema Communications PLC, Bellway (LON:BWY) PLC, Fidelity Special Values PLC, Orosur Mining Inc (LON:OMIN), Thor Explorations Ltd (LON:THX), Westmount Energy
Economic announcements: RICS Housing Market Survey (UK), Continuing Claims (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), Producer Price Index (US), Interest Rate Decision (EU)
Ex-dividends to reduce FTSE 100 by: 0.94