Benzinga - by Piero Cingari, Benzinga Staff Writer.
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady in the last meeting of the year, coupled with a dovish shift in economic projections, elicited a range of reactions from financial experts and leading economists.
While some see early signs of a rally, others caution against over-optimism, highlighting the delicate balance the Fed must maintain in the coming year.
Here are some relevant reactions to the Fed’s rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks:
- Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor Alliance: Zaccarelli highlighted the unexpected dovish turn from the Fed, stating, “For those expecting a Hawkish pause, they didn't get that at all.”
He pointed out the immediate positive reaction in the markets, with stocks and bonds rallying post-announcement. Zaccarelli saw this as a possible kickoff to a robust year-end rally, driven by strong economic indicators and the Fed’s openness to rate cuts. However, he cautioned against overlooking the potential risks ahead, given the swift pace of previous rate hikes.
- Alex McGrath, chief investment officer, NorthEnd Private Wealth: McGrath expressed surprise at the unexpectedly dovish tone of the Fed’s recent press conference, stating, “While we are obviously welcoming of the most dovish Fed presser we have seen in quite some time, I did not foresee this happening today.”
He perceived the Fed’s tone as suggesting an anticipation of not just a soft landing but a “perfect landing” for the economy. McGrath acknowledged the positive response from equity markets but also expressed a note of caution, drawing a historical parallel by hoping Chairman Powell’s tenure fares better than that of Arthur Burns, a reference that alluded to the challenging economic period of the 1970s under Burns’ Fed leadership.
- Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College and chief economic adviser at Allianz: El-Erian focused on the dramatic shift in Powell’s approach compared to his earlier remarks, highlighting the substantial impact on bond yields. He suggested the Fed’s dovish pivot has led markets to expect even more accommodative policies, underlining the significant drop in yields as a remarkable market response.
Re the #FederalReserve press conference:These comments from #Fed Chair Powell represent quite an evolution from his remarks just 12 days ago — an evolution that has turbocharged the collapse in yields (including what is now a 29 basis point fall in the 2-year).
The dynamic is a… pic.twitter.com/VXU6GOMfyP
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 13, 2023
- Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, LPL Financial: Krosby interpreted Chairman Powell’s remarks as cautiously optimistic. While acknowledging the easing of inflation, she noted Powell’s reluctance to fully embrace a victory over it. Krosby pointed out that despite Powell’s more conservative stance, markets have remained buoyant, suggesting confidence in the Fed’s ability to navigate the economy through these uncertain times.
- David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc.: Rosenberg provided a critical view, linking the Fed’s nominal GDP growth projection for 2024 with a high recession probability. He pointed out a disconnect between the Fed’s modest growth outlook and the more optimistic stock market expectations, suggesting a potential misalignment in economic forecasts and market sentiments.
Powell didn't want to talk about a hard landing on the podium, but the Fed's 3.8% nominal GDP growth projection for 2024 gave us the answer in any event… this has a 90% recession probability attached to it. Shhhhhh…. pic.twitter.com/l1YmLf7vfn— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) December 13, 2023
- Sam Millette, director of fixed income, Commonwealth Financial Network: Millette drew attention to the dovish signals in the Fed’s updated economic projections. He specifically noted the surprising forecast of three rate cuts by the end of 2024, which was more than what many anticipated.
Millette observed a significant market reaction to this dovish messaging, with equities rising and Treasury yields falling. He emphasized the adjustment in futures markets, which now anticipate an additional rate cut following the meeting.
- Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist, Allianz Investment Management: Ripley viewed the Fed’s consistent hold on rate hikes as a clear end to the current rate-hiking cycle. He interpreted the dovish tone of the meeting and the projection of 75 basis points of rate cuts as a sign of the Fed’s confidence in controlling inflation and guiding the economy to a soft landing.
Ripley, however, advised investors to be mindful of the pace and timing of the anticipated cuts, cautioning against premature excitement.
Read Now: Dow Jones Skyrockets To Record Heights, Shatters 37,000 Mark, Fueled By Fed’s Dovish Stance
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