Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

New BoE rate-setter Saunders sees reasonable growth for UK - FT

Published 20/09/2016, 19:52
© Reuters. A man walks past a souvenir shop in London

By Andy Bruce and David Milliken

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's economy is likely to grow at a reasonable pace in the coming years, slowing less than most economists expect as it overcomes "modest" fallout from June's Brexit vote, new Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Michael Saunders said.

He said that there was still plenty of scope for the BoE to stimulate the economy further if necessary, in an interview with the Financial Times published on Tuesday.

Saunders voted to keep interest rates unchanged at a record-low 0.25 percent last week, in his first Monetary Policy Committee meeting since joining the BoE from U.S. bank Citi, where he worked as its chief UK economist.

"In the near term, the next year or two, I think the economy will slow, but perhaps not slow as much as the consensus has been expecting," he said in his first public comments since joining the BoE.

Saunders - who as a Citi economist thought it more likely that the BoE would raise interest rates after a vote to leave the EU - said his views about the impact of Brexit had changed in recent months, describing the fallout as "modest" in the medium term.

"The UK should be able to grow at a reasonable pace ... over the next 10-15 years," he was quoted as saying.

After signs that the shock to Britain's economy was less severe than some forecasts, economists polled by Reuters last week saw a 35-percent chance of a recession over the coming year, compared with 50-percent shortly after June's vote to leave the European Union.

Last week the BoE raised its forecast for growth in the three months to the end of September to 0.3 percent from a previous forecast of a slowdown to 0.1 percent.

But it said the rebound in some economic indicators had not substantially shifted its longer-term view that Britain's economy would suffer as a result of the Brexit vote, and that most policymakers still expected to cut rates again this year.

Saunders said he did not think the BoE was close to running out of measures to boost the economy.

"There is substantial scope to expand asset purchases if needed, and ... what you saw (at the August meeting) was that monetary policy including asset purchases did seem to have a substantial effect on asset prices," he said.

Higher unemployment was one factor that could make him back a rate cut.

"If the jobless rate were to rise, increasing labour market slack further, then that would be an argument in favour of lower interest rates," he said.

But the BoE had to watch carefully for signs that adverse effects of ultra-loose monetary policy might be starting to outweigh the benefits, Saunders said.

© Reuters. A man walks past a souvenir shop in London

"I do not think we are at that tipping point, but that is something we have to be constantly on the alert for."

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.