Proactive Investors - Solar and wind power need almost £50 billion of extra investment to fully decarbonise the UK electricity grid by 2030.
This is the latest benchmark power curve forecast from influential energy consultants Cornwall Insight, which shows that renewable energy power is on track to account for just 44% of electricity generation by the end of the decade, compared to the 67% needed.
On entering government, Labour pledged to deliver a zero-carbon power system by 2030, with a promise to double onshore wind, triple solar power and quadruple offshore wind capacity.
Cornwall says this will require adding 35GW to onshore wind (17GW above projected levels), 50GW to offshore wind (27GW above projections), and 55GW to solar (10GW above projections).
As well as the extra funding needed, Cornwall said the government and renewable industry is likely to also face supply chain issues, as well as a bottleneck of grid connections and port capacity.
A fully decarbonised power system will also demand a dramatic increase in battery energy storage, especially for longer duration storage and hydrogen, where the consultancy noted that pledges to increase capacity have not been followed by many firm commitments.
"While the underlying goal to decarbonise the power system is one that many would agree is crucial for the country’s future, the gap between our current trajectory and the new government’s 2030 target is substantial," said Tom Edwards, principal modeller at Cornwall Insight.
He suggested that the government could assist by increasing the attractiveness of the contracts for difference (Cfd) schemes for renewables by increasing budgets or strike price caps, which would be likely to draw in more developers and investors, "as the potential for better returns makes investing in GB a more attractive prospect".
The government's swift action on lifting the de facto ban on onshore wind is "encouraging", he said, but added that "much more needs to be done to turn decarbonisation promises into a reality".
James Alexander, CEO of the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association, says the industry knows there is more money "just waiting to be invested in the UK" as sustainable technologies are acknowledged as a necessary growth area for the future of energy.
But he said the slow planning system and inadequate grid capacity are diverting most of that investment abroad, with UKSIF research showing that 63% of UK energy companies have moved or plan to move investments out of the UK.
"Crowding in private capital through tactical deployments of public investment can be effective, as we have seen with the US' inflation reduction act, but creating the correct policy environment for investments to thrive is also crucial," Alexander said.
"In a time of escalating global tensions, minimising our reliance on gas imports is essential, and only private capital has the investing power to drive the transition and make the UK a green powerhouse.”