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UK public inflation expectations tick up in May - BoE

Published 05/06/2015, 11:08
© Reuters. A shopping trolley is pushed around a supermarket in London
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LONDON (Reuters) - The British public's expectations for inflation in the next 12 months rose in May for only the second time in the last 18 months, despite consumer prices falling recently for the first time in decades, a survey showed.

Friday's quarterly survey from the Bank of England also showed more Britons expect interest rates to rise in the next year compared with three months ago.

The median expectation for inflation in 12 months' time rose to 2.2 percent from 1.9 percent in February, the BoE said.

Inflation expectations two years ahead rose to 2.3 percent from 2.1 percent, while they were unchanged at 2.8 percent for five years in the future.

"Expectations have been on a falling trajectory since 2013 and if this ends up being a turning point then the BoE will feel more comfortable raising rates when the time comes," George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche Bank (XETRA:DBKGn), said.

A similar survey by polling company YouGov for Citi, which was published last week, showed the British public's expectations for inflation in the next 12 months eased back in May to 1.0 percent.

BoE policymakers will be heartened that Friday's survey showed no hint that the recent dip in consumer prices -- which the central bank expects to be temporary -- had fed expectations of sustained deflation among members of the public.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said last month it was "possible" that British interest rates would be higher in a year's time. In Friday's survey, the net balance of Britons expecting interest rates to rise over the next 12 months rose to +33 in May from +28 in February.

However, some 43 percent of respondents thought it would be best for the British economy if interest rates remained at their record low of 0.5 percent -- the biggest proportion since records began in November 1999.

Economists polled by Reuters last week showed the BoE is expected to keep interest rates at a record low until at least early next year as inflation remains stubbornly below target.

© Reuters. A shopping trolley is pushed around a supermarket in London

The survey was conducted between May 8 and May 13 by polling company GfK NOP.

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