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Britain leans on consumers as mortgage approvals, loans surge

Published 02/06/2015, 14:08
© Reuters. Sold new build homes are seen on a development in south London

By Andy Bruce and William Schomberg

LONDON (Reuters) - British mortgage approvals surged by the most in six years in April and lending to individuals also rose sharply, underlining the clout of the country's consumers but also its reliance on them to drive the economy.

Tuesday's data from the Bank of England supported expectations that the pace of the broader economic recovery will pick up again by mid-year after slowing at the start of 2015, giving a nudge to a long-running debate about when interest rates might rise.

Mortgage approvals for house purchases hit their highest level in 14 months, reaching 68,076 from 61,945 in March.

The monthly rise was the biggest since February 2009 and stronger than forecast by economists, who had expected uncertainty about the outcome of Britain's May 7 election -- in which David Cameron's Conservatives won an outright majority -- might weigh on the housing market.

The rise consumer lending was not far off March's seven-year record monthly jump.

The figures were a reminder of the lopsidedness of Britain's recovery, with weak manufacturing and trade unlikely to contribute much to growth in the coming months.

Scotiabank economist Alan Clarke said they could also help to persuade some BoE policymakers to think about raising interest rates from their record low of 0.5 percent.

"I think the hawks should start to get twitchy imminently. You've got wages picking up just as (the BoE) pushed down its wage forecast, and there's a good chance of a very good Q2 GDP," he said.

Sterling rose against the dollar after the data. [GBP/]

A separate survey from Markit/CIPS showed growth among housebuilders picked up last month -- something that will be crucial to ensuring housing supply meets demand and keeping rising prices in check.

Mortgage approvals fell throughout most of 2014 as regulators introduced new controls on mortgage lending, cooling strong house price growth.

Still, BoE Governor Mark Carney in March described the housing market as the biggest medium-term risk to Britain's financial stability.

But policymakers are unlikely to be fazed by the latest data because activity in the market is still low, said Ed Stansfield, chief property economist at Capital Economics.

Mortgage approvals topped 70,000 per month in late 2013 and early 2014, and before the 2008 financial crisis they ran at around 90,000.

Policymakers would be vigilant for signs of looser lending standards, Stansfield said.

The BoE data also showed lending to non-financial businesses fell sharply in April after March saw the biggest rise since records started four years ago.

© Reuters. Sold new build homes are seen on a development in south London

Over the last six months, growth in business lending has averaged zero, further underlining the consumer-driven character of the recovery.

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