⏳ Final hours! Save up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

UK's slow growth and rising inflation gives BoE headache - PMIs

Published 23/09/2021, 09:31
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A person stands outside the Bank of England in London, Britain, September 13, 2021. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo

By Andy Bruce

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain's economy lost more momentum this month as businesses grappled again with rising costs, a survey showed, highlighting the difficult backdrop for Bank of England officials ahead of Thursday's interest rate decision.

The preliminary "flash" IHS Markit/CIPS flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped for a fourth consecutive month in September to its lowest reading since February, slipping to 54.1 from 54.8 in August.

A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 54.5. The survey, a gauge of health for Britain's businesses, showed a slowdown in both the services and the manufacturing sectors.

The readings, which will have been seen by BoE officials in advance of the central bank's 1100 GMT policy announcement, add to signs of fading momentum in the economy just as inflation surges, fuelled by global supply chain problems and rising energy prices.

PMI data company IHS Markit said the figures suggested Britain may be on course for a bout of stagflation - a mixture of poor growth and high inflation associated with the economic malaise of the 1970s.

"While the UK PMIs maybe aren't the best place to look for guidance on where GDP is right now, they nevertheless emphasise that the recovery is stalling as we head into winter," ING economist James Smith said.

IHS Markit said there were clear signs that shortages of materials and labour were holding back growth. The composite PMI for Britain lagged behind those for France and Germany.

The PMI for the services sector fell to 54.6 in September from 55.0 in August, its lowest level since February when Britain was still in lockdown.

Business expectations among services companies fell to a nine-month low and they raised prices on the broadest basis since records started in the mid-1990s.

"Brexit was often cited as having exacerbated global pandemic-related supply and labour market constraints, as well as often being blamed on lost export sales," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said.

© Reuters. A man shops at Leicester Market, amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Leicester, Britain, May 27, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Boyers

While the BoE has said it expects the current rise in inflation to be transitory, the increase has put rate-setters under more pressure to explain how they plan to unwind the stimulus launched last year to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic.

The PMI for the manufacturing sector fell to 56.3 in September from 60.3 in August, also marking its lowest level since February.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.