Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

German wage deal could boost consumer-driven growth

Published 24/02/2015, 10:10
© Reuters. Protest placard lies on ground as day shift workers and members of union IG Metall stage warning strike at Ford car factory in Cologne

By Michelle Martin and Ilona Wissenbach

BERLIN/BOEBLINGEN (Reuters) - An inflation-busting wage deal for Germany's biggest labour union agreed on Tuesday looks set to boost household spending this year after consumer activity propelled strong growth in Europe's largest economy at the end of 2014.

With record-high employment and rising wages, consumers are providing the main impetus for a traditionally export-reliant economy. Private consumption grew by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, matching its sharpest rises in three years.

Germany is under pressure to increase wages and invest more to help reduce economic imbalances and boost the flagging euro zone economy. Fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data suggested this is starting to happen.

The Statistics Office confirmed an earlier flash estimate that the economy grew 0.7 percent at the end of last year.

"That sets us up really well for this year and it means that the prospects for a solid 2015 growth rate are good," said BayernLB economist Stefan Kipar, adding that he expected 1.7 percent growth this year but it could be closer to 2 percent.

Robust end-year growth came after Germany narrowly avoided a recession in the middle of 2014 because of weakness in the euro zone and uncertainty stemming from the Ukraine crisis.

Domestic demand contributed 0.5 percentage points to growth, gross capital investment 0.2 percentage points and foreign trade 0.2 points. Gross capital investment levels, which plunged in the middle of last year, bounced back to expand 1.2 percent, with plant, equipment and construction spending increasing.

The German government expects the economy, which expanded by 1.6 percent overall last year, to grow by 1.5 percent this year, helped by a weaker euro and lower oil prices.

Consumer morale is at its highest in more than 13 years and after trade union IG Metall agreed on Tuesday to a 3.4 percent wage increase for one year from April for the southwest region, plus a one-off payment of 150 euros, there is no sign of that abating. IG Metall said the deal would help boost consumption.

Agreements in this pilot region traditionally serve as a template for the 3.7 million workers whom the union represents nationwide. The increase is much higher than Germany's 2014 inflation rate of 0.9 percent.

© Reuters. Protest placard lies on ground as day shift workers and members of union IG Metall stage warning strike at Ford car factory in Cologne

"Today's IG Metall deal suggests that newly negotiated deals may be firm this year and that this will keep negotiated pay overall in the economy at 3 percent," said Greg Fuzesi, an economist at J.P.Morgan.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.