On Monday, UBS reiterated its Sell rating on Volkswagen AG (VOW:GR) (OTC: OTC:VWAGY) stock, maintaining the price target at EUR 84.00. The firm's reiteration follows Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p)'s recent announcement on Friday that its financial outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been adjusted downwards.
The German automaker now expects an operating profit (OP) of approximately €18 billion, which is below the consensus estimate of around €21 billion. Additionally, the operating profit margin is anticipated to be around 5.6%, compared to the previous consensus of 6.5%.
The company has revised its volume guidance to a decrease of 2.6% year-over-year, a significant shift from its earlier forecast of up to 3% growth. Revenue is projected to be slightly below flat year-over-year, adjusting down from an earlier estimate of 0-5% growth.
These changes are attributed to developments in various segments, including VW Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV), components, and a lower result from its Financial Services division, which is now expected to be €3.2 billion instead of €4.0 billion.
Volkswagen also indicated that the planned restructuring of its German operations is not included in this revised forecast. The company warned that the weaker macroeconomic environment could lead to additional risks, particularly for the Brand Group Core.
The updated forecast for fiscal year 2024 represents a roughly 15% reduction from the latest consensus estimates, driven by a weaker underlying business trend that UBS believes should also be considered for the 2025 outlook.
In the context of the broader automotive market, UBS suggests that the downward revision by Volkswagen should be seen in light of similar warnings from competitors BMW (ETR:BMWG) and Mercedes-Benz (OTC:MBGAF) Group (MBG), particularly regarding the potential for steeper declines in the Chinese market.
Volkswagen's financials, especially in China, are mostly recorded below the operating profit line, with the exception of Porsche (ETR:P911_p), which is an at-equity income.
Finally, Volkswagen's free cash flow (FCF) guidance has also been adjusted. The company now anticipates approximately €2.0 billion, including mergers and acquisitions outflows, a decrease from the previously forecasted range of €2.5 to €4.5 billion.
This latest financial guidance update from Volkswagen reflects a more cautious stance in the face of evolving market conditions and internal challenges.
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