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Truist sees EBITDA strength driving Phreesia stock upside despite slower revenue growth

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 06/09/2024, 10:42
PHR
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On Friday, Truist Securities adjusted its financial outlook for Phreesia Inc . (NYSE:PHR) stock, a healthcare software company. The firm increased its price target to $31.00 from $29.00 and sustained a Buy rating.


This decision reflects a revised expectation for the company's financial performance in Fiscal Year 2026 (FY26), particularly regarding revenue growth and margin expansion.


The updated price target comes after the analyst's examination of Phreesia's preliminary guidance on certain operational metrics for FY26. The analysis suggests that a mid-teens top-line growth rate is a more reasonable expectation compared to the high teens growth rate previously anticipated by the market.


Despite a more conservative view on revenue, the analyst anticipates that the market consensus may underestimate the year-over-year margin expansion that Phreesia is targeting for FY26.


In response to the new projections, Truist Securities has raised its adjusted EBITDA estimates for Phreesia while lowering revenue estimates for the same period. The adjustments come amidst a period of significant change within the company, described by management as an inflection point in the business's trajectory.


Management at Phreesia emphasized the ongoing transformation, noting the challenges external parties face in understanding the company's direction without full visibility into all components of its FY26 plan. They pointed out that the market's focus on revenue growth might overshadow the potential for robust EBITDA performance in the business's financials.


The revised financial outlook by Truist Securities reflects a nuanced view of Phreesia's future, balancing expectations for revenue growth with the potential for significant improvements in profitability as the company navigates through a pivotal phase in its development.


In other recent news, Phreesia reported a significant milestone in its Q2 fiscal year 2025 results, marking positive cash flow for the first time since it became a public entity. The company's revenue saw a 19% year-over-year increase, totaling $102.1 million, while its adjusted EBITDA rose to $6.5 million, an $18 million improvement from the previous year.


This robust financial performance led the management to revise its adjusted EBITDA forecast for fiscal year 2025 upwards. Piper Sandler, Canaccord Genuity, and Needham maintained their respective price targets on Phreesia's shares, reiterating their confidence in the company's growth trajectory and operational strategy.


Phreesia also provided an early glimpse into fiscal year 2026, projecting an increase in Active Healthcare Service Clients (AHSCs) to 4,500 by year's end, up from 4,200 in fiscal year 2025. They also anticipate year-over-year growth in average revenue per user (ARPU), driven by larger initial contracts and enhanced ARPU among its existing client base.


Despite significant sales and marketing expenses, Phreesia remains focused on long-term revenue and profit growth, with continuous investment in product development. These are the recent developments investors should note.


InvestingPro Insights


Following the updated financial outlook by Truist Securities for Phreesia Inc. (NYSE:PHR), real-time data and InvestingPro Tips provide additional context for investors considering the company's stock. Phreesia's market capitalization stands at approximately $1.48 billion, reflecting its scale within the healthcare software industry. Despite analysts revising earnings upwards for the upcoming period, they do not anticipate the company to be profitable this year, which aligns with the P/E Ratio currently at -13.57. This suggests that investors are pricing in future growth expectations rather than current earnings.


With a high Price / Book multiple of 5.9, the market is valuing Phreesia's assets at a premium, which could relate to its proprietary technology and market position. Revenue growth remains robust with a 22.1% increase over the last twelve months as of Q2 2025, indicating a strong demand for Phreesia's offerings. However, the operating income margin is negative at -30.32%, highlighting the challenges the company faces in translating top-line growth to bottom-line results.


Investors may also take note of Phreesia's recent stock performance, with a strong return of 12.77% over the last month and an even more impressive 30.08% over the last three months. This momentum could be indicative of the market's response to the company's strategic initiatives and the revised outlook by analysts. For those seeking a deeper analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, offering insights on Phreesia's financial health and future prospects. To explore these further, visit InvestingPro.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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