Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:TREX), a manufacturer of wood-alternative decking products, saw a downgrade in stock rating by Stephens from Overweight to Equal Weight.
Accompanying this downgrade, the firm also lowered its price target for Trex to $72 from the previous $115.
The downgrade comes after Trex reported second-quarter sales that were slightly below expectations, though its adjusted EBITDA slightly exceeded forecasts. The company saw approximately 6% sales growth, attributed to low single-digit sell-through rates and strong performance from its premium products.
However, this was partially negated by a decline in entry-level product sales.
For the third quarter, Trex's guidance suggests a sales decrease of around 26% at the midpoint. Moreover, the company has revised its full-year guidance, indicating an expected fourth-quarter year-over-year sales decline of roughly 16%.
Despite these challenges, Trex anticipates maintaining robust EBITDA margins between 30% and 30.5% for the calendar year 2024, supported by high production levels and cost reduction initiatives.
The company is also dealing with a significant increase in inventory levels, which have doubled and are projected to remain high. This situation is dependent on a resurgence in demand growth anticipated in 2025, which could result in reduced channel fill during the first quarter.
Meanwhile, Loop Capital reduced its price target for Trex shares to $95 from $110, citing mixed demand signals, yet maintained a Buy rating. This was based on a composite decking survey revealing strength in near-term demand but a deceleration in bidding activity.
The firm anticipates Trex to raise its fiscal year 2024 revenue forecast following an expected second-quarter beat. Concurrently, Loop Capital expects a modest increase in Trex's EBITDA margin guidance for FY24 due to strong sell-through demand trends.
Meanwhile, Baird reduced its price target for Trex from $105 to $88, retaining a Neutral rating. The firm cited conservative assumptions for the second half of the year, including potential operational inefficiencies at Trex's new facility in Little Rock, as reasons for the adjustment. On the other hand, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) raised its price target for Trex to $95 from $93, also maintaining a Neutral rating. This followed Trex's robust first-quarter sales of $374 million, surpassing its guidance range.
In terms of earnings and revenue, Trex reported a significant 57% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales, reaching $374 million. The company's projections for 2024 revenues remain between $1.215 and $1.235 billion, reflecting an 11-13% year-over-year increase. In addition, Trex anticipates an adjusted EBITDA margin for 2024 in the range of 30.0-30.5%.
InvestingPro Insights
Amid the recent downgrade by Stephens, Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE: TREX) continues to navigate the market with certain financial strengths and challenges reflected in its real-time data and InvestingPro Tips. The company's market cap stands at $8.32 billion, and despite experiencing a sharp decline in stock price over the last week, Trex is trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth. This could indicate a potential undervaluation based on future earnings potential, with a current P/E ratio of 32.99 and an adjusted P/E ratio for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 at 31.61.
Revenue growth remains a bright spot with a significant 28.06% increase over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, although quarterly growth is more modest at 5.59%. The company's profitability is underscored by a strong gross profit margin of 43.15% and an impressive return on assets at 22.51%. These metrics suggest that Trex is effectively converting its assets into profits, which is a positive sign for investors.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Trex has a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating sound financial health, and that liquid assets exceed short-term obligations, providing the company with financial flexibility. While the stock has seen a price reduction over the last three months, analysts predict Trex will be profitable this year, which may provide some reassurance to investors considering the stock's future prospects. For those interested in a deeper dive into Trex's financials and additional analyst insights, InvestingPro offers 13 more tips to guide investment decisions.
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