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TD Cowen lowers Elevance shares target, cites Medicaid trend concerns

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 19/07/2024, 13:58
ELV
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On Friday, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook on Elevance (NYSE:ELV) shares, reducing the price target to $589 from the previous $624, while reaffirming a Buy rating on the company's stock.

The revision follows Elevance's second-quarter 2024 earnings release, which sparked concerns after comments about Medicaid trends indicated an expected rise in utilization for the second half of 2024.

The analyst from TD Cowen noted that the increase in Medicaid utilization could potentially lead to a mismatch between rates and the acuity of care. This discrepancy is anticipated to normalize within the next 6 to 12 months, although the exact timing remains uncertain. Due to this uncertainty, the analyst has chosen to maintain the 2024 earnings per share (EPS) estimates at the lower end of Elevance's provided guidance.

Despite the lowered price target, the firm's Buy rating for Elevance is unchanged. This decision indicates the analyst's continued confidence in the stock's potential performance over the next 12 months.

The updated price target of $589 represents the firm's adjusted expectation for the stock's value, taking into account the near-term challenges highlighted during the earnings call.

The second-quarter performance and subsequent commentary have been pivotal in influencing the firm's revised price target for Elevance. The analyst's remarks underscore the impact of healthcare utilization trends on the company's financial outlook, as well as the broader implications for its stock valuation.

In summary, while TD Cowen has reduced its price target for Elevance, the firm maintains a positive stance on the stock's investment potential. The analyst's comments reflect caution due to current Medicaid trends but also suggest an eventual alignment of rates and care acuity, which could stabilize the company's earnings projections in the forthcoming period.

In other recent news, Elevance Health Inc. reported a strong Q2 performance with operating revenue of $43.22 billion and an adjusted EPS of $10.12, exceeding estimates.

The company also expanded its primary care services through a collaboration with the private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice. Financial services firm Baird adjusted its price target for Elevance, reducing it to $625 from the previous $649, citing near-term headwinds but suggesting these present an attractive buying opportunity given the company's long-term prospects.

RBC Capital upgraded its price target for Elevance to $585, maintaining an Outperform rating, while BofA Securities downgraded the stock rating to Neutral due to Medicaid margin concerns. Truist Securities and TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating, expressing confidence in the company's financial preparedness.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) maintained an Overweight rating with a price target of $643, and Mizuho Securities raised Elevance's price target to $585. These recent developments indicate the company's ability to navigate changing dynamics in the healthcare landscape.

InvestingPro Insights

As Elevance (NYSE:ELV) navigates a period marked by increased Medicaid utilization and its impact on financial projections, InvestingPro data and tips provide additional context for investors considering the company's stock. Elevance's management has a history of returning value to shareholders, as evidenced by a 14-year streak of maintained dividend payments and a policy of aggressive share buybacks. Moreover, the company stands out as a prominent player in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, with cash flows that can sufficiently cover interest payments, suggesting a degree of financial stability.

InvestingPro data shows Elevance with a market capitalization of $117.04B and a P/E ratio of 17.7, which adjusts to 15.77 based on the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. The company also has a PEG Ratio of 2.83 and a Price/Book ratio of 2.77 for the same period. These metrics, combined with a dividend yield of 1.29% and a recent dividend growth of 10.14%, may appeal to investors looking for a balance between growth potential and steady returns.

For those seeking comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional insights, with over 10 additional InvestingPro Tips available. These tips delve deeper into Elevance's financial health, stock performance, and analyst predictions, providing a richer picture of the company's investment potential. To access these insights, investors can use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription, enhancing their investment strategy with expert analysis.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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