On Tuesday, BofA Securities revised its stance on Svenska Handelsbanken (LON:0R7R) AB (SHBA:SS) (OTC: SVNLY) stock, shifting the rating from Neutral to Underperform and adjusting the price target to SEK 98.00 from SEK 117.00.
The new rating reflects the firm's anticipation of significant challenges for the bank in the near future, including a projected substantial decline in return on tangible equity (ROTE) of more than 4% over the next two years.
The bank is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of negative 6% in net interest income (NII) from 2023 to 2025. Additionally, the bank's operating performance is predicted to suffer, with negative operating jaws—an indicator comparing the growth rate of income to expenses—of 13% in 2024 and 8% in 2025. These factors contribute to the downgrade and suggest a tough period ahead for the bank.
Svenska Handelsbanken, according to the firm, is likely to undergo a restructuring phase to enhance profitability in its Swedish operations. This necessity arises from the anticipated difficulty in reducing costs at branch levels and within its international businesses, particularly in Norway. Despite the bank's traditionally low cost of risk (CoR), its significant exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) and a lower coverage ratio are considered potential risks.
The bank's capital position remains robust; however, it is expected that management will maintain higher capital buffers, estimated at 300 basis points, down from the current 400 basis points, which may be reduced by 100 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Consequently, the total yield of the bank is projected to align with the sector average of 10%. This assessment by BofA Securities indicates caution regarding the bank's performance and potential investor returns in the coming years.
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