On Tuesday, CFRA raised the price target for shares of Progressive Corp. (NYSE: NYSE:PGR) to $245 from the previous target of $235, while keeping a Hold rating on the stock.
The firm adjusted its 12-month target price based on an 18.1 times multiple of the newly projected 2026 operating earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $13.55 and a 19.8 times multiple of the 2025 EPS estimate of $12.40. This valuation compares to Progressive's three-year average forward multiple of 21.2 times and the average multiple of 11.2 times for its peers.
The firm's decision follows Progressive's second-quarter earnings per share of $2.48, which significantly exceeded last year's $0.57 EPS for the same quarter. CFRA has also increased its 2024 EPS forecast for the company by $0.17 to $11.22.
This comes after Progressive reported a second-quarter operating EPS of $2.65, outpacing both CFRA's estimate of $2.48 and the consensus estimate of $2.01. The insurer's performance was bolstered by a 19% rise in premiums, which surpassed CFRA's 15%-20% growth forecast, and a stronger underwriting result, evident in the improved combined ratio of 91.9% compared to 100.4% previously.
Looking ahead, CFRA anticipates Progressive will experience operating revenue growth of 15%-20% in 2024 and a 12%-17% increase in 2025. The firm expects this growth to be driven by the company's sustained pricing power. Furthermore, CFRA predicts improvements in underwriting results, although it also foresees ongoing inflation in certain auto claim trends, which is likely to support higher premium rates.
In summary, CFRA views Progressive's stock as undervalued when compared to historical averages, and it believes that the company's superior underwriting capabilities justify a premium valuation relative to its peers. The firm's outlook reflects confidence in Progressive's financial prospects and its position within the insurance industry.
In other recent news, Progressive Corp has reported significant increases in both earnings and revenue. The company's second-quarter profit saw a substantial rise due to a heightened demand for personal auto insurance policies.
Progressive also reported a 22% surge in net premiums written, reaching $17.90 billion. The company's net income rose to $1.46 billion, or $2.48 per share, compared to $345.4 million, or $0.57 per share, in the same quarter of the previous year.
In terms of analyst actions, BMO Capital Markets maintained an Outperform rating on Progressive shares, while Citi kept a Neutral rating but increased Progressive's price target to $232. On the other hand, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) slightly decreased its price target for Progressive to $243, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintained a Market Perform rating with a steady price target of $207.00.
These are recent developments for Progressive Corp, which continues to navigate the insurance industry landscape. The company's performance has been solid, despite missing earnings per share estimates due to elevated catastrophe losses. Progressive's robust policy count growth has defied the usual seasonal slowdown, and the company continues to gain market share while many competitors focus on enhancing profitability.
InvestingPro Insights
As Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) garners attention with its robust second-quarter earnings and CFRA's raised price target, real-time data from InvestingPro offers additional perspectives. Progressive's market capitalization stands at a substantial $122.82 billion, reflecting its prominence in the insurance industry, a point underscored by one of the InvestingPro Tips which highlights the company as a key player. The company's Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 21.4, aligning closely with the three-year average forward multiple mentioned in CFRA's analysis.
InvestingPro data also shows a Price/Book ratio of 5.63 for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024, suggesting a higher valuation compared to some peers. This could be indicative of the market's confidence in Progressive's assets and future growth, aligning with CFRA's assessment of the company as undervalued based on historical averages. Moreover, Progressive's strong revenue growth of 24.93% for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024 demonstrates its potential to sustain the pricing power and revenue increases projected by CFRA.
For investors seeking a deeper analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, including insights on Progressive's dividend consistency, with the company maintaining dividend payments for 15 consecutive years. For those looking to leverage these insights, InvestingPro offers a range of tips that can be accessed with a special offer: use coupon code PRONEWS24 to get up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription. With 12 more InvestingPro Tips available, investors can gain a comprehensive understanding of Progressive's financial health and market position.
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